The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, according to a Thursday report from the Labor Department. First-time weekly jobless claims for state unemployment benefits increased 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 312,000 for the week ended May 31.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless aid rising to 310,000 last week.
A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing the state level data.
The four-week moving average for new claims, which is considered a better indicator of underlying labor market conditions due to it smoothing out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,250 to 310,250. That’s the lowest level since June 2007.
Last week’s data will not be included in the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs employment report released for the month of May on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased 218,000, a slowing down from April’s outsized 288,000 gain, according to a Reuters survey of economists. However, the ADP jobs report released earlier this week ahead of the BLS survey missed Wall Street’s expectations.
The jobless rate is expected to rise one-tenth of a percentage point to 6.4 percent from a 5-1/2 year low in April, likely driven by people entering the labor force in search of work. The unemployment rate fell only due to the amount of people who left the labor market, or quit looking for the American dream.
If the BLS report shows slowed growth, which it likely will, then some economists will say it should not be viewed as a loss of momentum in the labor market, because it would still be around the average for the preceding six months. But economic growth is not achieved by matching averages or even slightly increasing from the average, rather growth is achieved when reports shows data that consistently beats the average.
Further, the U.S. economy must add at least 250,000 private sector jobs monthly in order to simply keep pace with population increases, let alone grow an abundance of opportunity.
The weekly jobless claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid declined 20,000 to 2.60 million in the week ended May 24. That was the lowest level since October 2007, but in large part due to the fact that we are simply running out of eligible applicants and they are running out of benefits.
Still, to some extent continuing claims have declined for five straight weeks, which suggests some measure of long-term unemployment is decreasing as people are finding work. The unemployment rate for people collecting unemployment benefits has held at 2.0 percent since April.
