Democrat Mike Ross (left) and Republican Asa Hutchinson (right), candidates in Arkansas governor race this November. (Photos: AP)
Barring any unforeseen hiccups, PPD’s final rating change in the Arkansas governor race between former Rep. Asa Hutchinson and former Rep. Mike Ross is from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Several developments have all helped to break the race open in the Republican’s favor.
Let’s take a look at the analysis, polling, state data and, of course, you can always get an idea of the overall political landscape by checking out the 2014 Governor Map and generic ballot tabs on the end.
[tabs id=”ARGov” title=”Arkansas Governor Race -Hutchinson Vs. Ross”] [tab title=”Analysis”]
The competitive Senate race has real potential to blunt what little ticket-splitting may have favored Mr. Ross. The nation’s voters, as a whole, have become less and less willing to split their tickets in recent elections, but we did give the once-popular and well-known former Democratic representative the benefit of the doubt. In part, the strength of the Arkansas State Democratic Party factored into that analysis, but that now seems completely unfounded.
With the data we are seeing, we can no longer do that. At the onset of the cycle, envisioned a likelihood — albeit a small one — that voters may give the Republicans one win, either at the Senate or gubernatorial level. We were certainly more bullish on Rep. Tom Cotton than Hutchinson, in large part because we saw Cotton as a stronger candidate. Yet, if one believes the polls, the Senate election turned out to be far more competitive than the gubernatorial.
Ross hasn’t led in a single poll since late August, which was a Rasmussen Reports survey. PPD readers are well-aware of our affliction to that pollster, who according to PPD’s Pollster Scorecard, currently shows a Democratic bias greater than 6 points. Even though polling is but one factor in our model, which means it doesn’t sway the statistical likelihood of a race overwhelmingly juxtoposed to other factors, it would certainly appear that the national Democratic Party believes the polling.
The Democratic Governors Association is off the air in Arkansas because, they likely see what we see, which is an environment where Republicans are poised for a complete statewide sweep in both races. We have had the Senate contest Likely Republican for some time now, with Cotton recently breaching the 80-percent threshold in probability just recently. Now, it perhaps appears we have lagged behind the curve on the gubernatorial contest, as well. So, after revisiting the race, PPD is moving the Arkansas governor race from Leans Republican to Likely Republican, as Asa Hutchinson is now enjoying an 84 percent chance of victory.
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[tab title=”Polls”]
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Hutchinson (R) | Ross (D) | Raw Spread | PPD Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPD Average | 9/20 – 10/16 | — | — | 48.3 | 40.8 | Hutchinson +7.5 | Hutchinson +8.5 |
| Talk Business Poll* | 10/15 – 10/16 | 2075 LV | 2.2 | 49 | 41 | Hutchinson +8 | |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/13 – 10/15 | 940 LV | 3.0 | 49 | 47 | Hutchinson +2 | |
| FOX News* | 10/4 – 10/7 | 707 LV | 3.5 | 46 | 37 | Hutchinson +9 | |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 9/20 – 10/1 | 1991 LV | 2.0 | 49 | 38 | Hutchinson +11 | |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/24 – 9/25 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 42 | Hutchinson +4 | |
| USA Today/Suffolk* | 9/20 – 9/23 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 43 | 41 | Hutchinson +2 | |
| PPP (D) | 9/18 – 9/21 | 1453 LV | 2.6 | 46 | 40 | Hutchinson +6 | |
| NBC News/Marist* | 9/2 – 9/4 | 639 LV | 3.9 | 48 | 39 | Hutchinson +9 | |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 8/18 – 9/2 | 1572 LV | 3.0 | 45 | 38 | Hutchinson +7 | |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/25 – 8/26 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 44 | 46 | Ross +2 | |
| PPP (D) | 8/1 – 8/3 | 1066 RV | 3.0 | 46 | 40 | Hutchinson +6 | |
| Talk Business Poll* | 7/22 – 7/25 | 1780 LV | 2.3 | 46 | 41 | Hutchinson +5 | |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 7/5 – 7/24 | 1616 RV | — | 48 | 45 | Hutchinson +3 | |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/27 – 5/28 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 48 | 41 | Hutchinson +7 | |
| NBC News/Marist | 4/30 – 5/4 | 876 RV | 3.3 | 49 | 42 | Hutchinson +7 | |
| PPP (D) | 4/25 – 4/27 | 840 RV | 3.4 | 46 | 38 | Hutchinson +8 | |
| NY Times/Kaiser | 4/8 – 4/15 | 857 RV | 4.0 | 41 | 40 | Hutchinson +1 | |
| Talk Business Poll* | 4/3 – 4/4 | 1068 LV | 3.0 | 43 | 44 | Ross +1 | |
| Opinion Research Associates | 4/1 – 4/8 | 400 RV | 5.0 | 39 | 45 | Ross +6 | |
| Impact Management Group (R) | 2/10 – 2/10 | 1202 RV | 2.8 | 42 | 42 | Tie | |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/4 – 2/5 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 41 | 44 | Ross +3 | |
| Impact Management Group (R) | 10/24 – 10/24 | 911 RV | 3.2 | 40 | 37 | Hutchinson +3 | |
| The Arkansas Poll | 10/10 – 10/17 | LV | — | 35 | 31 | Hutchinson +4 | |
| Talk Business Poll | 10/8 – 10/8 | 603 LV | 4.0 | 41 | 37 | Hutchinson +4 | |
| Harper (R) | 8/4 – 8/5 | 587 LV | 4.0 | 46 | 38 | Hutchinson +8 | |
| Talk Business Poll | 2/20 – 2/20 | 675 RV | 3.8 | 43 | 38 | Hutchinson +5 |
(Please note: Our model uses separately calculated averages from weighted polls based on PPD’s Pollster Scorecard. Above is the raw spread and average.)[/tab]
[tab title=”State Data”]
POLITICS |
Arkansas | National Average |
Partisanship |
||
| % Republican/Lean Republican | 39 | 39 |
| % Democratic/Lean Democratic | 41 | 43 |
| Registered Republicans | N/A | — |
| Registered Democrats | N/A | — |
| Unaffiliated/Undeclared | N/A | — |
Ideology |
||
| % Conservative | 41 | 36 |
| % Moderate | 35 | 36 |
| % Liberal | 17 | 23 |
Presidential Job Approval |
||
| % Approve | 32.5 | 40.6 |
Partisan Voting Index |
||
| Strongly Republican | R+14 | — |
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[tab title=”2014 Governor Map”]
[show-map id=’2′]
LEGEND: SAFE DEM | LIKELY DEM | LEANS DEM | TOSS-UP | LEANS GOP | LIKELY GOP | SAFE GOP
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[tab title=”Generic Ballot”]
[table id=3 /]
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