What Economic Data Investors, Business Can Expect Last Week Of Christmas

Business and investors can count on a final revision of third-quarter GDP and competing housing market data throughout the week leading up to Christmas Day. All U.S. banks and securities markets are closed Thursday for the Christmas holiday.

The third report on third-quarter GDP will come out Tuesday, and economist expect t to show a $15 billion upward revision, of which, roughly $7 billion is expected to come from construction spending. That increase will represent both private and public construction spending, so it will be interesting to note the breakdown.

According to analysts at IHS Global Insight, roughly $5 billion will come from the Census Bureau’s third-quarter Quarterly Services Survey. As a result, third-quarter real GDP growth is expected to be revised to 4.3 percent, up from 3.9 percent in the second estimate.

A report on existing home sales is due out Monday, which is expected to show a 3.2 percent drop to 5.09 million in the month of November, which follows two consecutive months of increase. Mortgage applications also dropped in October, and there were four fewer days to register a sale in November than there were in October, according to IHS Global.

However, the National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI) for Agency purchase loans rose in November to 11.69 percent, up from the average of 11.29 percent for the prior three months (revised). The risk indices for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and the VA all hit series highs in November, which we will discuss the map out on Monday.

A report on consumer sentiment is due out Tuesday, which economists expect will show an increased of 0.4 percent in November. When adjusting for inflation, spending is expected to have increased by just 0.6 percent, in part due to strong auto sales last month and also falling gasoline prices.

A report on durable goods orders, or manufacturing products expected to last three years or more, will come out Tuesday, and is expected to show an $11.5 billion increase, or 4.7 percent gain in November.

However, mostly aircraft orders will prop the numbers up. Vehicles, core capital goods, and machinery should indicate a modest “but not great” month, according to the IHS analysts. Unfortunately, those modest gains are expected to be outweighed by a tank in defense orders, which skyrocketed by 21 percent in October.