Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Mid-Atlantic Manufacturing Rises Unexpectedly

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, the gauge of Mid-Atlantic manufacturing by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, rose to a 12.8 in September from a 2.0 the month prior. The median economic forecast was calling for a reading of 1.0. However, the subindexes on shipments and employment, were negative and indicate weaker performance than the top line suggests for the sector.

A reading above zero indicates expansion, while those below indicate contraction.

For the first time since August of last year, the index has registered two consecutive positive readings (see Chart 1). While the new orders index improved from -7.2 to 1.4, inventories index declined from -9.2 to -26.2.

The current employment index stayed in negative territory for the ninth consecutive month, but it did gain from -20.0 in August to -5.3 this month. Still, firms reported overall decreases in the average workweek, as the percentage of firms reporting a shorter workweek (23%) topped the percentage reporting a longer workweek (11%).