MNI Chicago Business Barometer: Midwest Manufacturing Expands in September

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, the Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of factory activity in the Midwest, increased 2.7 points to 54.2 in September from 51.5, recovering most of lost ground experienced in the previous month. The MNI Chicago Report is up from earlier in the year when the Barometer averaged 53.8 in Q3, up from 52.2 in Q2 and the highest quarterly level since Q4 2014.

“Economic growth in the US appears to have picked up a little at the end of the third quarter and although the Employment component fell, this was on the back of a relatively strong showing in the previous month,” said Lorena Castellanos, senior economist at MNI Indicators. “Note Employment usually lags changes in orders and output, so it was not that surprising to see this component weakening in September.”

The increase in the Chicago Business Barometer was almost exclusively driven by large gains in Production, which rose 7.3 points to 59.8, the highest since January 2016. New Orders and Order Backlogs, which caused the Barometer to fall in August, were flat in September. Order Backlogs did climb above the 50 breakeven level. Employment was the only Barometer component that fell, after gaining to a 16-month high in August.