The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined in May to -0.26, down from 0.57 in April as production-related indicators pointed to slower growth. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to 0.04 in May from 0.21 in April.
The production component fell to -0.16 from a strong 0.53 last month, while the employment component declined to -0.02 from 0.12. The consumer and housing component was at -0.09 as a result of weak housing permits.
National manufacturing surveys haven’t reflected the incredibly strong growth regional factory indexes have shown. This morning, the Commerce Department also said durable goods in the U.S. fell more than expected in May.
The Chicago Business Barometer hit the highest level since November 2014, while the Empire State Manufacturing Survey rebounded strongly and crushed the median economic forecast by a factor of four. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey also easily beat the median forecast.
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