Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Cools, Remains Strong

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed Mid-Atlantic factory activity cooled in July, but remained strong. The index came in at a strong 19.5, though lower than the 22.0 median economic forecast.

But data indicating future weakness are masked by the headline number. While the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey has been positive for 12 straight months, July’s reading is the lowest since President Donald J. Trump was elected in November.

The new orders index, at 2.1, fell more than 20 points in the month for the worst reading since August last year. Nearly 31% of respondents reported a rise in new orders this month, down from 45% in June.

The unfilled orders index showed continued strength at 7.2, the employment index came in at 10.9, and selling prices at 9.0. But all three are at their weakest since December.

The shipments index came in at a strong 12.2, but it’s the lowest rate of growth since September 2016. The workweek, still positive at 3.8, was the lowest since November.