S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Beat Forecast

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index covering all 9 U.S. census divisions rose 6.3% annually in February, up from 6.1% in January. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.5%, up from 6.0%, while the 20-City Composite saw a 6.8% year-over-year gain, up from 6.4%.

The 20-City easily beat the 6.2% median economic forecast.

“Home prices continue to rise across the country,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Year-over-year prices measured by the National index have increased continuously for the past 70 months, since May 2012.”

Price increases during this run, which is still continuing, averaged 6% annually. The previous long run was from January 1992 to February 2007, 182 months, when prices averaged 6.1% annually.

“With expectations for continued economic growth and further employment gains, the current run of rising prices is likely to continue,” Mr. Blitzer added.

The National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in February before seasonal adjustment, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported increases of 0.7%. The latter easily beat the 0.2% median forecast.

After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase in February, while 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.8% month-over-month increases. That also beat the 0.7% median forecast.

Cities in the West continue to lead the pack.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco again reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Seattle posted the highest 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.6% increase and San Francisco with a 10.1% increase. Thirteen of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending February 2018 versus the year ending January 2018.

“Increasing employment supports rising home prices both nationally and locally,” Mr. Blitzer said. “Among the 20 cities covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, Seattle enjoyed both the largest gain in employment and in home prices over the 12 months ended in February 2018.”

Chicago was ranked 19th in both home price and employment gains, while Cleveland ranked 18th in home prices and 20th in employment increases.