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Advance 1Q GDP: U.S. Economic Growth Stronger than Expected

Workers assemble built-in appliances at the Whirlpool manufacturing plant in Cleveland, Tennessee August 21, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

The U.S. economy grew at a stronger-than-expect pace in the first-quarter (1Q) 2018, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.3% after increasing by 2.9% in 4Q 2017.

The “second” 1Q GDP estimate based on more complete data will be released on May 30, 2018.

Personal income increased $182.1 billion in 1Q 2018, which followed an increase of $186.4 billion in 4Q 2018. Worth noting, declines in personal interest income, rental income, and nonfarm proprietors’ income were offset by gains in wages and salaries and in government social benefits.

Personal current taxes decreased $40.1 billion in 1Q juxtaposed to an increase of $50.1 billion in 4Q 2018. Disposable personal income rose $222.1 billion, or 6.2%, after an increase of $136.3 billion, or 3.8%, in 4Q.

Real disposable personal income rose 3.4% after gaining 1.1% in the previous quarter.

Personal saving was $462.1 billion in 1Q, which compares with a $379.8 billion gain in 4Q. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — came in at 3.1% in 1Q after a smaller 4Q 2.6% rise.

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes provisions that impact the personal income statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts.

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Richard D. Baris

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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  • I'm definitely not tired of this kind of winning:

    New durable goods orders in the U.S. nearly doubled last month's economic forecast

    Trade gap down my over 10% since last month

    GDP more than *doubled* since #MAGA started

    Now that we know tax cuts - "allowing" us to keep more of *our* earnings - more than pay for themselves, maybe we can get rid of the punitive, capital-killing, job choking offsetting "soak the rich" tax increases included to satisfy the CBO bean counters who, as always, were dead wrong.

    Incidentally, why does CBO always overestimate the "cost" of every single tax cut - and always underestimate the cost of every single program and expenditure?

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Richard D. Baris

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