Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Beats Forecast in April

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in at +0.34 in April, up slightly from a reading of +0.32 in March and higher than the +0.25 median forecast. The 3-month moving average, or the CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.46 in April from +0.23 in March.

Two (2) of the 4 broad categories of indicators increased from March to April, and 3 of the 4 categories made positive contributions to the index.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a 3-month moving average, gained significantly to +0.23 in April from +0.11 in March.

Fifty (50) of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 35 made negative contributions. Thirty-five (35) indicators improved from March to April, while 50 indicators deteriorated. Of the 35 indicators that improved, 8 made negative contributions.

Employment and industrial production are the two that highlight the strength in this report.

Production-related indicators contributed +0.27 to the CFNAI in April, up from +0.19 in March. Manufacturing industrial production increased by 0.5% in April after being unchanged in March. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.02 to the CFNAI in April, down slightly from +0.08 in March.

Employment-related indicators contributed +0.10 to the CFNAI in April, up from +0.04 in March. The U.S. unemployment rate decreased to 3.9% in April from 4.1% in March, with black and Hispanic unemployment falling to all-time lows.