The U.S. added 75,000 jobs and wage growth exceeded 3% for the tenth straight month in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. The unemployment rate remained at just 3.6% and Hispanic unemployment fell back to a record low 4.2%.
| Indicator | Prior | Revised | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Actual |
| Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M ∆ | 263,000 | 224,000 | 180,000 | 90,000 to 195,000 | 75,000 |
| Unemployment Rate – Level | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5 % to 3.7 % | 3.6% | |
| Private Payrolls – M/M ∆ | 236,000 | 205,000 | 175,000 | 140,000 to 180,000 | 90,000 |
| Manufacturing Payrolls – M/M ∆ | 4,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | -5,000 to 13,000 | 3,000 |
| Participation Rate – level | 62.8% | 62.8% | 62.7% to 62.9% | 62.8% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings – M/M ∆ | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% to 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings – Y/Y ∆ | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% to 3.4% | 3.1% | |
| Av Workweek – All Employees | 34.4 hrs | 34.5 hrs | 34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs | 34.4 hrs |
The labor force participation rate, at 62.8%, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.6%, were both unchanged in May.
“Even though the Jobs report for May came in 100,000 light of consensus and we had downside revisions for March and April, I really don’t think it will have be a big negative market moving event,” Tim Anderson, analyst at TJM Investments said at NYSE.
“Instead I feel it will just be additional leverage for the market forces that have been campaigning the Federal Reserve to cut rates a couple times before the end of the year.”
Average hourly earnings (AHE) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents to $27.83. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1%. AHEs increased for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees by 7 cents to $23.38.
As stated, wage gains have exceeded 3% for the tenth consecutive month. That’s a threshold met for the first time in Q1 2018 since before the Great Recession.
Construction employment was +4,000 following +30,000 for April. The construction industry has added 215,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
U.S. job creation is averaging 164,000 per month in 2019. That’s down from an average 223,000 per month in 2018. However, aside from the skills gap, the number of jobs created each month is expected to slow at full employment.
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