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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CHNAI) Ticks Up, Nears Average for June

U.S. economy on an American flag background waving in the wind, in 3D rendering. (Photo: AdobeStock)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up slightly to -0.02, near the average for June and ensuring a rate cut won’t lead to overheating. The three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) also ticked up to –0.26 from –0.27 in May.


PriorRevisedConsensus ForecastForecast RangeResults
CFNAI-0.05 -0.03 0.00 -0.30  to 0.10 -0.02 
CFNAI-MA3–0.17–0.27-0.26

Forty of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI, while 45 made negative contributions in June. Thirty-six indicators improved and 49 deteriorated. Of those that improved, 9 made negative contributions.

Production-related indicators were neutral contribution in June, down from +0.08 in May. Industrial production was flat, as utilities offset mining and manufacturing.

Employment-related indicators contributed +0.06 to the CFNAI in June, up from –0.08 in May. The Employment Situation (jobs report) for June reported the U.S. economy added a stronger than expected 224,000 jobs, bouncing back after a gain of 72,000 in the previous month.

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PPD Business Staff

PPD Business, the economy-reporting arm of People's Pundit Daily, is "making sense of current events." We are a no-holds barred, news reporting pundit of, by, and for the people.

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