Labor Market Continues to Defy Forecasts, Recession Fears
Initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ending August 17, the Labor Department (DOL) reported. The labor market continues to defy the forecasts amid media-driven recession fears.
The consensus forecast was looking for a less sharp decline to just 216,000.
| Prior | Revised | Consensus Forecast | Forecast Range | Actual | |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 220 K | 221 K | 216 K | 205 K to 220 K | 209 K |
| 4-week Moving Average | 213.75 K | 214.00 K | NA | NA | 214.50 K |
| Initial Jobless Claims – ∆ | 9 K | NA | NA | NA | -12 K |
The 4-week moving average was 214,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 213,750 to 214,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at a very low 1.2% for the week ending August 10.
No state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending August 3, a Labor Department analyst said.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending August 3 were in New Jersey (2.4), Puerto Rico (2.4), Connecticut (2.1), Pennsylvania (2.0), California (1.9), Rhode Island (1.8), Alaska (1.6), Illinois (1.6), Massachusetts (1.6), New York (1.4), and the Virgin Islands (1.4).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 10 were in California (+5,363), New York (+608), Kentucky (+423), Pennsylvania (+411), and Connecticut (+401), while the largest decreases were in South Carolina (-374), Illinois (-337), Tennessee (-285), Alabama (-230), and North Carolina (-213).
