Economy

Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Adds 130K Jobs in August, Unemployment Holds at 3.7%

Unemployment for African Americans Falls to All-Time Low 5.5%

The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. This marks the eighteenth straight month in which unemployment is at or below 4%, and unemployment for African American fell to a new all-time low at 5.5% (chart also here).

The job creation forecasts ranged from a low of 150,000 to a high of 180,000. The consensus forecast was 163,000. While that 130,000 number is below expectations, there’s a lot of positives in this report.

	Prior	Consensus Forecast	Forecast Range	Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M ∆	164,000	163,000	150,000 to 180,000	130,000
Unemployment Rate – Level	3.7%	3.7%	3.6% to 3.8%	3.7%
Private Payrolls – M/M ∆	148,000	150,000	136,000 to 155,000	96,000
Manufacturing Payrolls – M/M ∆	16,000	8,000	1,000 to 8,000	3,000
Participation Rate – level	63.0%	62.9%	62.9% to 63.0%	63.2%
Average Hourly Earnings – M/M ∆	0.3%	0.3%	0.2% to 0.4%	0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings – Y/Y ∆	3.2%	3.1%	3.0% to 3.4%	3.2%
Av Workweek – All Employees	34.3 hrs	34.4 hrs	34.4 hrs to 34.4 hrs	34.4 hrs

The labor force participation rate (chart) rose to 63.2% and the employment-population ratio also rose to at 60.9%. The latter is up 0.6% for the year.

In August, average hourly earnings (AHEs) for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $28.11 after 9-cent gains in both June and July.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2% (chart). Wage growth has now exceeded 3% for 11 straight months on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, and hit or exceeded for 13 straight months.

In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents to $23.59.

For June, the change in total nonfarm payrolls was revised down by 15,000 from +193,000. For July, it was revised down by 5,000 from +164,000 to +159,000, resulting in a net 20,000 change for the two months.

On Thursday, the ADP National Employment Report showed the U.S. private sector added 195,000 jobs in August.

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Richard D. Baris

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."