Jobless Claims Fall, Insured Unemployment Rate Matches Series Low

Insured Unemployment Rate Just 1.1%, Number Lowest Since August 4, 1973

The advance for initial jobless claims fell 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 for the week ending November 23 and insured unemployment fell matched the series low. The 4-week moving average declined by 1,500 to 219,750.

Forecasts for the headline weekly jobless claims ranged from a low of 215,000 to a high of 221,000. The consensus forecast was 218,000.

Lagging data made history.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.1% for the week ending November 16, the lowest ever on record. It first fell to 1.2% for the week ending May 5, 2018, and to 1.1% for the week ending September 14, 2019. It held for one more week before inching back to 1.2%.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 16 fell by 57,000 to 1,640,000, the lowest level since August 4, 1973 when it was 1,633,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,680,500, a decrease of 13,000.

The Labor Department said no state was triggered “on” the Extended Benefits program during the week ending November 9.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending November 9 were in Alaska (2.5), Puerto Rico (2.1), New Jersey (2.0), California (1.6), Connecticut (1.6), West Virginia (1.6), Pennsylvania (1.5), Washington (1.5), Illinois (1.4), and Montana (1.4).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 16 were in Illinois (+2,974), Iowa (+1,652), Minnesota (+1,444), Michigan (+1,313), and Oklahoma (+960), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,067), New Jersey (-3,769), Pennsylvania (-2,104), Texas (-2,058), and Georgia (-1,483).