Third Estimate for Q3 2019 GDP Holds Strong, Consumer Spending Revised Higher

U.S. Economy Grew at Faster Pace than Initially Expected in Q3 2019

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the third estimate for third-quarter (Q3) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) held at 2.1%, higher than initially forecasted. Real GDP rose by 2.0% in Q2 2019.

Second estimate forecasts ranged from a low of 1.7% to a high of 2.1%. The second consensus forecast was 1.9% and the forecast for the advance was just 1.6%.

Third estimate forecasts ranged from a low of 1.9% to a high of 2.1%. The consensus was 2.1%.

The final reading on Q3 2019 GDP reflects upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment, which were offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.

Consumer spending came in at a much stronger 3.2% for Q3 2019. That’s up from 2.9% in the second estimate.

Consumer spending forecasts ranged from a low of 2.8% to a high of 2.9%, and the consensus was 2.8%.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose 2.1% in the quarter, compared with a much smaller gain of 0.9% in Q2 2019. The average of real GDP and real GDI—a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI—also rose 2.1% in Q3, up from 1.4% in Q2.