FHFA HPI: House Prices Double Forecast for December, Ends 2019 Strong

U.S. house prices rose 1.3% in the fourth quarter (4Q) of 2019 and 5.1% from Q4 2018, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI).

FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was up 0.6 % from November.

“Growth in U.S. home prices stabilized at the end of 2019 with fourth quarter prices increasing 5.1% from the same period a year ago,” Dr. Lynn Fisher, Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics at FHFA. “The revised measure of home price growth in the third quarter was also 5.1%.”

“Prices in the Mountain region had the highest gains, posting a 6.7 annual growth rate in the fourth quarter.”

Significant Findings (via FHFA)

• U.S. House prices have risen for 34 consecutive quarters, or since September, 2011. 
• House prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the fourth quarters of 2018 and 2019.  The top five areas in annual appreciation were: 1) Idaho 12.0 percent; 2) Utah 8.1%; 3) Arizona 7.0%; 4) Washington 7.0%; and 5) Indiana 7.0%.  The areas showing the smallest annual appreciation were:  1) Connecticut 1.9%; 2) Illinois 2.0 percent; 3) Iowa 2.1 percent; 4) Mississippi 2.8%; and 5) Louisiana 3.0%.
• House prices rose in 97 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters.  Annual price increases were greatest in Boise City, ID, where prices increased by 12.7%.  Prices were weakest in Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY, where they fell by -1.8 percent.
• Of the nine census divisions, the Mountain division experienced the strongest four-quarter appreciation, posting a 6.7% gain between the fourth quarters of 2018 and 2019 and a 1.4% increase in the fourth quarter of 2019. Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the New England division, where prices rose by 3.9% between the fourth quarters of 2018 and 2019.