Initial Jobless Claims 1.31 Million for Week Ending July 4, Down for 14th Straight Week

Jobless Claims Beat Forecast, Insured Unemployment Fell Significantly

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 1,314,000 for the week ending July 4, a decrease of 99,000. The previous week was downwardly revised (-14,000) to 1,413,000.

Claims soared due to the mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), though have now declined for the fourteenth straight week. Forecasts ranged from a low of 1,150,000 to a high of 1,430,000. The consensus forecast was 1,375,000.

The 4-week moving average was 1,437,250, a decrease of 63,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised average (+3,000) at 1,500,250.

Roughly 51 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits as a result of the efforts to slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). However, tens of millions now have returned to work given monthly employment situation statistics and lagging data.

The Small Business Administration (SBA) reported on Monday the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) saved more than 50 million jobs. With small businesses employing 59.9 million across the country, that represents upwards of 84% of all their employees.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 12.4% for the week ending June 27, down from the previous week’s rate, which was revised down by 0.3 from 13.2 to 12.9%.

The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.

Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% just weeks ago, as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 27 was 18,062,000, a decrease of 698,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 530,000 from 19,290,000 to 18,760,000.

The 4-week moving average was 19,085,500, a decrease of 636,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 132,500 from 19,854,000 to 19,721,500.

Extended Benefits were available in all 50 states during the week ending June 20.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending June 20 were in Puerto Rico (25.4), Nevada (20.8), Hawaii (20.7), the Virgin Islands (17.5), New York (17.1), California (16.7), Louisiana (16.2), Massachusetts (15.6), Georgia (15.1), and Connecticut (15.0).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 27 were in Michigan (+18,668), Indiana (+15,496), Texas (+7,046), Virginia (+6,662), and Kentucky (+5,794), while the largest decreases were in Oklahoma (-40,208), Florida (-11,313), Maryland (-9,926), Georgia (-8,240), and California (-7,132).