Jobless Claims Hang at 870k for September 19, Insured Unemployment Steady

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims rose slightly by 4,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 870,000 for the week ending September 19. The previous week was upwardly revised slightly by 6,000 from 866,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 800,000 to a high of 905,000. The consensus forecast was 880,000.

The 4-week moving average was 878,250, down 35,250 from the previous week, which was revised up by 1,500 from 912,000 to 913,500.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate came in at 8.6% for the week ending September 12, a decline of 0.1 from the previous week, which was revised higher 0.1 to 8.7. It fell to single digits for the week ending August 15 at 9.9%.

The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.

Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% just weeks ago, as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.

The most strictest lockdown states, which consequently saw the highest number of infections, are disproportionately hurting the labor market and overall economy.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 5 were in Hawaii (19.8), California (15.7), Nevada (14.9), Puerto Rico (14.1), New York (13.7), Louisiana (13.2), District of Columbia (11.3), Georgia (11.3), the Virgin Islands (11.3), and Massachusetts (10.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 12 were in Indiana (+1,990), Kansas (+1,928), Illinois (+1,906), and Michigan (+1,727), while the largest decreases were in California (-17,400), Texas (-15,905), Louisiana (-8,384), Georgia (-8,235), and Washington (-3,291).