Insured Unemployment Falls Significantly, Jobless Claims Fall Slightly

Most Strict Lockdown States Disproportionately Hurting Labor Market Indicators

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell slightly by 9,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 840,000 for the week ending October 3. The previous week was upwardly revised by 12,000 to 849,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 800,000 to a high of 855,000. The consensus forecast was 819,000.

The 4-week moving average was 857,000, down 13,250 from the previous week, which was revised up by 3,000 to 870,250.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell significantly to 7.5% for the week ending September 26, a decline of 0.7 from the previous week, which was revised higher 0.1 to 8.2. It first fell to single digits post-Covid-19 shutdown for the week ending August 15 at 9.9%.

The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.

Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.

The most strictest lockdown states, which consequently saw the highest number of infections, are disproportionately hurting the labor market and overall economy.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending September 19 were in Hawaii (20.1), California (16.1), Nevada (13.7), Puerto Rico (12.2), the Virgin Islands (12.1), Louisiana (11.4), New York (11.1), Georgia (10.9), District of Columbia (10.4), and Michigan (10.2).

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 26 was 10,976,000, down significantly by 1,003,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised higher by 212,000 from 11,767,000 to 11,979,000.

The 4-week moving average was 12,112,250, a decrease of 642,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 53,000 from 12,701,250 to 12,754,250.

Again, the most strictest lockdown states with the highest number of infections are disproportionately negatively impacting the labor market.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 26 were in Maryland (+3,619), Illinois (+3,414), New Jersey (+2,504), Michigan (+2,358), and Massachusetts (+1,886), while the largest decreases were in Texas (-7,075), Florida (-6,655), Georgia (-5,895), New York (-5,112), and Oregon (-2,317).