Jobless Claims Fall More than Expected, Insured Unemployment Falls to 4.6%

Washington, D.C. (PPD) — The U.S. Labor Department (DOL) reported initial jobless claims fell more than expected by 48,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 709,000 for the week ending November 7. The previous week was revised up only slightly 6,000 from 751,000 to 757,000.

Forecasts ranged from a low of 700,000 to a high of 765,000. The consensus forecast was 737,000. The 4-week moving average was 755,250, a decrease of 33,250 from the previous week, which was also revised up only slightly by 1,500 from 787,000 to 788,500.

Lagging Jobless Claims Data

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate crated down to 4.6% for the week ending October 31, a decline of 0.3 from the previous week, which was revised down by 0.1 from 5.0 to 4.9%. Post-Covid-19 shutdown, the insured unemployment rate first fell to single digits during the week ending August 15 at 9.9%.

Under the Trump Administration, this rate had fallen to an all-time low 1.1% and remained at 1.2% as recently as March 14. But that was before coronavirus (COVID-19) mitigation efforts.

The insured unemployment rate hit the first high of the current crisis at 8.2% for the week ending April 4. The all-time high prior to that was 7.0%, recorded in May of 1975. On April 11, it rose to 11.0% and 12.4% on April 25.

Worth noting, the labor market indicators are improving again despite the most strictest lockdown states — which consequently saw the highest number of infections — disproportionately hurting the labor market and overall economy.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 24 were in Hawaii (9.9), California (8.9), New Mexico (8.5), Nevada (8.2), the Virgin Islands (7.1), Massachusetts (7.0), Puerto Rico (6.9), Georgia (6.8), District of Columbia (6.5), and Alaska (6.1).