Montana Senate Race Analysis: Dems Have Mountain High Problem

The Montana Senate race is the seventh article in a succession of articles offering expanded analysis on the ratings for the PPD 2014 Senate Map. The Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock appointed Lt. Gov. John Walsh to serve out the remainder of retiring Sen. Max Baucus’ term, in hopes to keep the red state’s Senate seat in the party.

But will that really work?

Many well-known possible Republican hopefuls, such as Rep. Steve Daines, ex-Gov. Marc Racicot and ex-Rep. Denny Rehberg (who lost to Sen. Jon Tester in 2012), were anxiously awaiting Brian Schweitzer’s decision. Tester said he would “bet the farm” on Schweitzer entering the contest, but he was wrong.

The decision by Schweitzer to pass on the Montana Senate race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Max Baucus was devastating to the Democratic Party, and the single-most favorable development — save for ObamaCare, itself — the Republican Party could have ever asked for in their effort to retake the U.S. Senate.

Democrat Lt. Gov. John Walsh announced in a video he will enter the Montana Senate race in 2014, handing Democrats their first big-name recruit in the race for the open seat. Walsh’s video plays up his service in Iraq and his status as a political newcomer. He served as adjutant-general of the state’s National Guard before being selected as now-Gov. Steve Bullock’s (D) running-mate in the 2012 election.

At first, it appeared Walsh would have to deal with something most Democrats do not have to deal with, a primary challenger. Unlike the Republicans, the Democratic Party has a powerful establishment that quickly decides on a candidate they will get behind. However, John Bohlinger didn’t get the memo and made pretty clear he would not fall in line.

“Some Democrats, trying to clear the field for John Walsh, are frustrated by John Bohlinger’s candidacy for U.S. Senate in Montana, but at this point, it doesn’t really matter which one runs against current at-large Rep. Steve Daines next fall—they both are down double digits,” wrote Public Policy Polling in November. Not that I hold PPP is such high regard, but I tend to agree.

Democrats were ecstatic when Walsh entered the Montana Senate race — and it is worth noting that candidate recruitment weighs heavily in our PPD model — but Walsh ran in to a problem when a Montana TV station KXLH reported that Walsh was cited in a 2010 inspector general report for improperly using his position in the Guard for personal gain.

The news may throw a wrench into Democrats’ hopes for Gov. Steve Bullock to appoint him to the open seat, which many claim would give Walsh the advantage of incumbency heading into the Montana Senate race. But allegations aside, the Rothenberg Political Report has looked at such claims, and they turn out to be rocky, at best.

It may have helped Walsh against Bohlinger, who will likely just disappear after he gets appointed, but it will not do much for him in the general election.

Montana is a state where the failed rollout of ObamaCare has done the Democratic Party serious damage, with both ObamaCare and Obama’s approval in the low 30s. Prior to the ObamaCare disaster, I was just about the only pundit who rated this race “Leans Republican,” so I won’t be waiting for my inbox to fill up with a bunch of “you were right” messages for now changing the rating of this race to “Likely Republican.”

Freshman Republican Rep. Steve Daines has emerged as the clear and early favorite and, as you can see below, is well ahead of Walsh. Daines is not particularly popular in the state, but the Democratic Party, Obama and ObamaCare, are toxic.

Daines leads the GOP field, which also includes state Rep. Champ Edmunds, but he is way behind Daines with only 7 percent of the primary vote. Even if Edmunds manages to gain traction, he is still polling ahead of both Walsh and Bohlinger, with next to zero name recognition.

The Montana Senate race always was and still is considered a prime turnover pickup opportunity for the Republican Party following Democratic Sen. Max Baucus’s retirement.

Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama 55.35 percent to 41.7 percent in November, despite Republicans having a terrible Senate candidate. The Partisan Voting Index in Montana has held steady at R+7 from 2010 to 2012, and barring a serious mistake by Daines, who benefits from statewide representation, he will be the next “Big Sky Country” senator from “The Treasure State” of Montana.

View Polling Below Or Return To PPD 2014 Senate Map