Iowa Governor Race: With Approval Matching ’90s High, Terry Branstad Cruising To Reelection

The Iowa Governor race is the eighth article in what is a succession of articles offering expanded analysis on our 2014 Governor Map Predictions. Incumbent Republican Iowa Governor Terry Branstad is the longest-serving governor since the signing of the Constitution, and Des Moines Democrat state Senator Jack Hatch is attempting to stop him from winning re-election to a historic sixth term.

An early Des Moines Register survey back in June of 2013, found Branstad with an approval rating sitting pretty at 58 percent, which likely chased the more viable ex-governor and Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack. Former Gov. Chet Culver, an unpopular incumbent who was easily defeated by Branstad in 2010, said last year that he was considering a rematch, but the Des Moines Register poll found Culver’s favorability in the negatives, a data point that no doubt contributed to him taking a pass.

Which leaves us with the current Iowa Governor race: Branstad versus Hatch.

Sen. Jack Hatch cannot seem to gain any momentum among Iowa voters, which is frustrating the Iowa Democratic Party because, although the job approval rating for Gov. Terry Branstad is actually rising, his actual voter support margin slipped a bit. I, however, do not agree with Democrats’ assumptions regarding this anomaly, but we will get into that shortly.

The latest Des Moines Register survey of the Iowa Governor race found a whopping 63 percent of Iowans approve of Terry Branstad as governor, which is his highest rating since the end of his fourth term back in 1999, and a steep hill for Hatch and Democrats to climb.

When asked, just 29 percent of likely voters say they’d vote for Hatch, while 44 percent said they’d vote for Gov. Terry Branstad. Although there are nine who months before the election — nine months being an eternity in politics — Hatch has never been able to break 30 percent in the Des Moines Register Poll since polling began in June of 2013.

Name recognition can account for some of this, but Hatch is turning out to be a poor statewide candidate, an ever-important variable in our model used at PeoplesPunditDaily.com. In gubernatorial contests, in particular, candidate recruitment truly underscores why Tipp O’Neill, the former Democratic Speaker of the House, was correct when he said “all politics is local.”

Branstad’s 63 percent job approval rating represents a 5-point increase from the Register’s last Iowa Poll conducted in December and just 30 percent disapprove of his job, a near mirror of the 29 percent who support Hatch. Hatch only ticked up 2 percent in the latest poll from the last survey, but Quinnipiac University, who is rated a 3 out of possible 4 in our model for past accuracy in Iowa, found Hatch with 33 percent support back in December.

Nevertheless, Republicans have a clear advantage historically in midterm electorates, and Iowa is a pronounced example of this. In 2010, the Partisan Voting Index was D+1 when Republicans made huge gains in the state legislature, and is estimated to again be D+1 in 2014. Worth noting, PVI is not an actual poll to determine margins of support, but merely is utilized to determine the statistical and historical chance of one party’s candidate winning. For instance, in 2010, in states where the PVI was D+2 or more Republican, Republican candidates had a success rate of 83 percent.

Similarly, in their annual measurement of party ID by state, Gallup found Iowa to be competitive, with a slight shift toward the Republican Party.

Still, it may be fair to say the most significant factor weighing on our rating is candidate recruitment. We have to look no further than the Iowa Senate race to see just how much the individual candidate can influence the electorate’s choice. Despite the electorate agreeing more with the Republican Party platform, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley still maintains a lead over each candidate in a very crowded GOP field (Because of a number of factors, for now, we still rate the Senate contest a “Toss-Up” on our 2014 Senate Map Predictions).

Regardless, incumbent Governor Terry Branstad is the clear favorite in his bid to continue a historical streak, and with Obama’s abysmal approval rating in the state adding to the Democrats’ troubles, it doesn’t look like the record number of terms will end in 2014. Unless something significant develops in this race, the Iowa Governor race is rated “Safe Republican” on our 2014 Governor Map Predictions.

View Polling Below Or Return To PPD’s 2014 Governor Map Predictions