Nebraska Senate race hopefuls, former Republican State Treasurer Shane Osborn and Midland University President Ben Sasse participate in a debate in Omaha, Neb., Tuesday, March 11, 2014. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
The Nebraska Senate race is the seventeenth article in what has been a series offering expanded analysis of our 2014 Senate Map Predictions. The surprise retirement of Republican Senator Mike Johanns and the delayed decision by Republican Gov. Dave Heineman to opt out of the race, had put this race on hold. But now the GOP field is beginning to take shape enough to opine further.
On the Democrat side, Larry Marvin formally announced he will run, and was the first Democrat to declare his candidacy in the Nebraska Senate race. Marvin is a pain in the Nebraska Democratic Party Establishment’s you know what, through and through. He is an Air Force veteran and was a long-shot candidate for U.S. Senate both in 2008 and 2012. He, of course, lost to Bob Kerrey who went on to get blown out by Deb Fischer 57.8 to 42.2 percent in a not-so good cycle for Republicans. David Domina, trial attorney and candidate for governor in 1986, is also declared.
The Republican primary is where all the action has been and will continue to be in this contest. The crowded Republican primary field is as follows:
Declared
- Sid Dinsdale, President of Pinnacle Bank
- Clifton Johnson, businessman
- Bart McLeay, attorney
- Shane Osborn, former Treasurer of Nebraska
- Ben Sasse, President of Midland University
Not that we ever favor discounting underdogs, but it has become pretty clear that this will be a K-Street versus Main Street contest between two top contenders. Shane Osborn, 39, is a former Navy pilot and state treasurer, and was the Establishment’s pick largely due to high name recognition. But his cozying up to K Street and the Establishment GOP has been a bit too much for the party activists to handle.
The Club for Growth, the Senate Conservatives Fund, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Sarah Palin, all had endorsed his top primary opponent, Ben Sasse. Sasse, 42, has been the president of Midland University, a small Lutheran school in Fremont since Dec. of 2010. He was also an assistant secretary in the Department of Health and Human Services under George W. Bush.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly went ballistic after Senate Conservatives Fund endorsed Sasse over Osborne, and undertook a fundraising effort through the National Republican Senatorial Committee to organize attacks on the insurgent.
The Establishment versus insurgent narrative was further set in stone when FreedomWorks announced they have rescinded their endorsement of Osborn, opting instead to get in line with other conservatives and back Sasse. “Both Osborn and Sasse are great people, and this was not a decision taken lightly,” FreedomWorks president Matt Kibbe said in an email.
“The question at the heart of this decision is, who would caucus with the Freedom Caucus, and who would fall in line with the establishment? At this point, it is clear that Shane Osborn formed allegiances with Mitch McConnell and the K Street lobbying class.”
Of course, this wasn’t the best of news for Osborne to hear. He didn’t respond to us immediately, but his campaign did release the following statement: “FreedomWorks has decided to endorse a candidate who they have attacked for months over his lack of conservatism and record of championing big government policies. Sasse is selling himself as the ObamaCare nemesis, but nothing could be further from the truth.”
So, that’s the back and forth. Now, let’s look at some data.
Currently, Osborn is leading Sasse 35 percent to 24 percent in the latest survey conducted by Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway. In The Polling Company survey commissioned for Breitbart.com, Conway found name recognition to be the reason for Osborn’s lead. How do we know this? Because when told specific biographies, Sasse edges out Osborne 54 percent to 49 percent, likely due to the fact that ObamaCare is the top issue on primary voters’ minds and Sasse is seen as uniquely qualified to handle the issue.
An earlier survey seems to bare this out, as well. Harper Polling found a much tighter race in early March, with Osborne leading the lesser-known Sasse by just 30.4 percent to 29 percent. Both The Polling Company and Harper Polling found two variables that work to Sasse’s advantage. First, there is a large amount of undecideds in the Nebraska Senate race primary, 30 percent and 23.2 percent, respectively. Second, Sasse polls better among voters who have an opinion on the candidates, leaving far more room for Sasse to grow his support as voters get more familiar with his name than Osborne, who is already well-known.
Still, the NRSC is a formidable presence in Republican primaries. Even though they boast unimpressive victories, such as Sen. Cornyn defeating Steve Stockman in Texas with under 60 percent of the vote, a win is still a win. Until we see some more data, preferably from pollsters who have an accurate track record as determined by our PPD model, we will more comfortable making a call for one candidate in the primary. For now, we are still going to move this race from “Leans Osborne” to a “Toss-Up” because the data clearly suggest that is where this race truly is.
As far as the general election, we are moving the Nebraska Senate race to “Likely Republican” from “Safe Republican.” In the national political environment we are in, which has went from bad to worse for the Democratic Party, I would be hard-pressed to describe a scenario in which any of the Democratic candidates could win.
President Obama currently has the approval of only 37.5 percent of the residents in the Cornhusker State. The Partisan Voting Index (PVI) is in the double-digit Republican neighborhood, specifically R+12. According to the annual state-by-state Gallup party ID measurement, Nebraska has become even more Republican since 2012, and now the Cornhusker State is the eight-most conservative state.
A daunting, or nearly insurmountable challenge for the Democratic Party.
View Polling Below Or View 2014 Senate Map Predictions
| Poll | Date(s) | Sample | MoE | Dinsdale | Johnson | McLeay | Osborn | Sasse | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Polling Company | 02/25 – 02/28/14 | 400 | ± 4.9 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 24% | 30% |
| Harper Polling | 02/03 – 02/04/14 | 565 | ± 4 | 13.1 | — | 4.3 | 30.4 | 29% | 23.2% |
| Public Opinion Strategies^ | 10/27 – 10/28/13 | 400 | ± 4.9 | 7 | — | 1 | 39 | 7% | 46 |
| Gravis Marketing | 09/06 – 09/07/13 | 1,842 | ± 2.2 | 7 | — | 2 | 41 | 5% | 45 |
