Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pumps his fist during a campaign rally, Sunday, Oct. 23, 2016, in Naples, Fla. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)
Early voting begins in Florida on Monday, and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is barnstorming the must-win battleground state with multiple events. Trump will hold rallies in Tallahassee, Sanford and Tampa.
On Sunday at a rally in Naples, Trump continued to pitch his new “Contract with the American Voter” that promises to “drain the swamp” of corruption in Washington D.C. He unveiled his closing argument on Saturday in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, which outlined his first 100 days in office.
“Hillary Clinton isn’t running against me,” Trump said. “She is running against change. She is running against you, the American people.”
Republicans currently hold a 2-point lead and polling indicates Trump leads among those who already cast a ballot by nearly double that margin. According to the latest official tally, among those who voted by mail Republicans lead by roughly 2 points, 502,901 to 482,361.
“Early voting numbers are tricky to compare from the previous two cycles because of changes to the law and who receives ballots by mail and absentee,” says R. D. Baris, PPD’s senior political editor who not only predicted Gov. Rick Scott would win reelection, but within 5,000 votes. “You have to look at where these ballots are coming back from and where you can see those efforts have been energized.”
According to People’s Pundit Daily’s Sunshine State tracking poll, Trump currently holds a 1-point lead over Hillary Clinton. While other public polls have shown a 3 to 4 point lead for the former secretary of state, the Democratic Party simply don’t have as large a pool to draw from as they did in 2008 and 2012. When President Barack Obama ran for reelection, Democrats held a 4,821,859 to 4,263,587 advantage over the GOP.
That’s now fallen to 4,800,905 to 4,500,960. As of Monday, there were 3,353,421 voters not affiliated with either major political party in the state Mitt Romney lost by just 70,000 votes.
“It’s not an accident that Trump will visit Hillsborough County on Monday, which is home to many of those independent voters,” Baris said. “Gov. Romney lost that swing-to-Democrat leaning county to President Obama by roughly 7 points and he is running about even there with Mrs. Clinton. In the I-4 corridor, which is another once-swing region of the state that is moving toward leaning Democrat, the Republican is running a few points ahead of his rival.”
Still, Baris says Democrats close strong in the final weeks of a campaign in Florida, which is why they requested a federal judge to push back the deadline to register to vote. They won that legal fight and lost another after they filed a request asking judge to allow absentee ballots to get cast without verifying voter eligibility and identification.
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@PPDNews How's Florida looking for Trump?
So so far who do the peoples pundit daily think will win?
Hi Tony, in Florida, Trump has a small but firm lead (2 points). We released our battleground polls, which you can find if you visit the national tracking poll.
but wasn't mitt Romney leading by a similar amount in 2012 ?and look what happened to him .... a 2 point lead is easily in margin of error
That's true. In fact, most statewide polls had him with a larger lead than that (Mason-Dixon +7), but they were wrong. With Trump, he leads with indies by 6, while Romney was losing them by 3. He also outperforms Romney in basically every demographic, inc. Hispanics, particularly in Miami where he leads Clinton among them overall. Romney and Obama split them evenly. He's ahead by several points in the I-4 corridor, and has the largest lead in the Panhandle we've ever seen.
well how do you know you wont make the same mistake? I mean your poll is just one poll among many
Tony Jiang We don't,.And that's true for every other polling model, as well. We'll know on or after Election Day.
also why is there such a big difference between your poll and others?
We should have someone write about it. But in short, there are too many polls and not enough pollsters. We're not alone, just in good company. In Florida, Ann Selzer (Bloomberg Pollster) has pretty much the same margin in Florida and nationally, Investors Business Daily/TIPP, LA Times etc., tracking pretty close with us. We've been different before.
but its so different this time, there is such a giant difference between your poll and LA times with the others, I mean I don't remember such a gap between outliers and the "mainstream" polls in 2012