Republican Iowa Senate candidate, Joni Ernst, making headlines with another new ad, Shot.
The new spot (watch below), called “Shot,” depicts Ernst, a veteran and former Lt. Colonel, with a firearm preparing “to take aim at wasteful spending” and promises to “set her sights on ObamaCare.”
The ad is sure to resonate among both GOP primary voters and general election voters in the upcoming 2014 midterm elections should she be the Republican nominee. While public polling still shows a slight advantage for Democrat Rep. Bruce Braley, we are keeping our rating for the Iowa Senate race a “Toss-Up” on our 2014 Senate Map Predictions for the same reasons Enrst’s new ad is a hit.
And here is why.
Aside from the fact Rep. Bruce Braley was recently caught on video trashing Iowa farmers, elevating lawyers above regular Iowans as a viable profession for the Senate, the political environment in Iowa has been favor to the Republican Party far longer than liberal pundits have admitted.
By a 2 to 1 margin, Quinnipiac University found Iowa voters say they want a senator who opposes ObamaCare and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and a plurality want someone opposed to stricter gun control laws. Harper Polling, as well, found by a margin of 52 – 39 percent, Iowa voters say they want a senator who opposes ObamaCare. Similarly, Harper Polling found Iowa voters by a margin of 42 – 38 percent want a Republican senator.
Iowa voters approve 62 – 27 percent of the job Senator Chuck Grassley is doing, but only approve 55 – 31 percent of Senator Tom Harkin. When we compare trends, both of which show respectable improvements, we see a large disparity. The difference reflects the same political dynamic we discussed in the analysis of the last Iowa Senate poll conducted by Quinnipiac University: Iowa voters, ideologically and on the specific issues, have voter’s remorse over Barack Obama and largely agree with the Republican Party.
“President Barack Obama twice carried Iowa and it was the Iowa Caucuses which began his march to the presidency, but if he were on the ballot here today he would be toast,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
But while Obama, himself, may not be on the ballot in Nov., his policies are. Yesterday we took a look at recent polling data that did not bode well for the president’s party, with excitement and enthusiasm on the side of the president’s opposition. Ernst is just the candidate the Democrats are worried about, because she is likely to fire up an already exited conservative base.
The Iowa candidate received key endorsements from top Republicans and conservative groups across the board. Sarah Palin, the the heavy-hitting Senate Conservatives Fund and, more recently, Florida Senator Marco Rubio have all endorsed Ernst in the Republican primary.
