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Why Hillary Clinton Took Big Risk Backing Obama’s Immigration Order

President Obama isn’t doing Hillary Clinton any favors with an executive order on immigration and nuclear diplomacy with Iran. (Jewel Samad/AFP)

Hillary Clinton issued a rare statement Thursday following President Obama announcing he was signing an executive order on immigration. While it is clear camp Hillary feels it will help her chances in the 2016 Democratic nomination process, the chance it will doom her general election prospects is a real possibility.

“I support the President’s decision to begin fixing our broken immigration system and focus finite resources on deporting felons rather than families,” Clinton’s statement read. “I was hopeful that the bipartisan bill passed by the Senate in 2013 would spur the House of Representatives to act, but they refused even to advance an alternative.”

Following the Democratic Party’s historic defeat in the 2014 midterm elections, many of the party’s few remaining centrists looked to Hillary to win back working class whites in the North and Midwest, which overwhelmingly broke for the Republican Party. However, the president’s action on immigration is deeply and broadly unpopular among large majority blocs of the American public, including a significant number of Democrats.

“This move is widely unpopular with the American people,” said Democratic pollster, Pat Cadell. “And that includes a large number of white and black Democrats.”

So, why would Hillary Clinton risk further alienating working class whites?

First, as we previously reported, the Democratic Party largely believes that Northern and Midwestern white voters are not coming back in at least the short-term. That is the reason — the sole reason — for Obama’s astonishing reversal on whether he had the authority to issue an executive order on immigration. The party believes they need to “find new voters” among undocumented workers.

But, according to aides, Clinton still believes she can bridge the gap between working class whites and the ever-left-leaning Democratic Party. However, winning over lost white voters in a general election is a secondary challenge. She must first overcome a nomination process that is dominated by the most radical left elements of the party, and find acceptance in circles that would prefer self-described democratic-socialists Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Speaking of dominating, Clinton is certainly doing so in early 2016 Democratic nomination polls. However, early surveys offer little predictive value and, if history is any guide at all, it tells us that 1) no presidential hopeful is ever going to walk through a party nomination contest and, 2) Hillary has been here before.

Clinton was also the perceived frontrunner in the 2008 Democratic nomination before she was railroaded by the more radical leftwing, which backed a junior senator polling around “–” by this time. Following George W. Bush’s impressive performance among black voters in 2004, as well as a dominating performance among Northern and Midwestern whites, a deep concern among Democratic strategists began to grow. Not only did many Democratic strategists worry that Hillary could not generate enough excitement to reign in black voters who strayed from the Democratic coalition, but also that her appeal to whites was weaker than her husband’s.

Basically, Mrs. Clinton is between a rock and a hard place. She knows what I also explained in a recent article titled Top Midterm Myth: Low Turnout Doomed Democrats, which is that — if the eventual 2016 nominee intends to put his or her head in the sand by chocking up their losses to low turnout — then they are going to lose, plain and simple. Demographics will not save Democrats in 2016 against modest Republican inroads among minorities and reclaiming this particular bloc of white voters, as we saw them do in 2014.

Yet, ultimately, none of that even matters if she cannot secure the nomination. As events of the remaining two years of President Obama’s presidency unfold, we are likely to see Hillary continue to learn this delicate dance. Her challenge will be keeping the trust and excitement of her base, without further alienating working class whites. To Mrs. Clinton, I say good luck with that. As of now, I am of the mind that it is an impossible task.

Sure, it’s true. I am just a lowly analyst at the Internet’s most accurate election projection model of 2014, so, “what difference at this point does” my analysis “make?”

Read full statement released by Hillary Clinton:

I support the President’s decision to begin fixing our broken immigration system and focus finite resources on deporting felons rather than families. I was hopeful that the bipartisan bill passed by the Senate in 2013 would spur the House of Representatives to act, but they refused even to advance an alternative. Their abdication of responsibility paved the way for this executive action, which follows established precedent from Presidents of both parties going back many decades. But, only Congress can finish the job by passing permanent bipartisan reform that keeps families together, treats everyone with dignity and compassion, upholds the rule of law, protects our borders and national security, and brings millions of hard-working people out of the shadows and into the formal economy so they can pay taxes and contribute to our nation’s prosperity. Our disagreements on this important issue may grow heated at times, but I am confident that people of good will and good faith can yet find common ground. We should never forget that we’re not discussing abstract statistics – we’re talking about real families with real experiences. We’re talking about parents lying awake at night afraid of a knock on the door that could tear their families apart, people who love this country, work hard, and want nothing more than a chance to contribute to the community and build better lives for themselves and their children.

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Richard D. Baris

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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  • Could she be anymore annoying?

    Just curious as to what her accomplishments are. Because I can't think of a single one.

    She's the Kim Kardashian of American politics, like, yes, she's nice, but what does she do?

    Also - The last thing this country needs is another Democrat in the White House.

    Obama has crippled the US economy. Everybody I know is either out of work or under-employed. I haven’t had a raise in years despite all my expenses increasing from year to year. My health insurance is now up to $400/month. Before the government touched it, it was $250/month! My auto insurance, which the government has yet to ruin, is thankfully only $25/month (from Insurance Panda). Please, Obama! Don’t try to socialize auto insurance!

    With everything Obama touched in shambles, Barry needs a new hobby… and the United States needs a non-Democrat in office!

    • This particular comment is on multiple articles throughout the web with different names. Are these false comments sponsored by Insurance Panda or is there another organization mass spamming articles throughout the web? To the department that does this in whatever organization(s), try to be a bit more transparent lol.

      • Yup, it is. And this comment is about to be blocked from the rest of our discussions, because we aren't their free advertisements. Thanks for bring it to our attention!

    • Doll, you need to stop complaining and do something yourself. Girl you sound all upset, get yourself a man/woman. urgh!

  • Well, I'm not even "a lowly analyst at the Internet’s most accurate election projection model of 2014," but I think Joe Six-Pack (as some of my colleagues in Government used to call him) and even more important, Mrs. Six-Pack, will have forgotten this matter by the time the election comes around. In the meantime, she is pleasing her liberal friends and may, as you suggest, believe they will "'find new voters' among undocumented workers." I guess illegal votes are as good as legal ones.

    My progressivist best friend says Obama is a shill for the corporatists -- and that if people had taken the time to study him before voting, they would never have elected him. But the wonderful fact is that voters don't study -- most didn't do their homework in high school either. I've studied Hillary and she is scary to me -- ambitious beyond measure, seething with anger, totalitarian in her approach to governance, and with no record of real accomplishments. Yet despite her many detractors, she seems quite likely to be nominated. She's got the bucks, the hubby, the paper resume, and the ears of the nation.

    To be elected, she needs just one thing -- a Republican candidate as unsuitable as John McCain or as bumbling as Mitt Romney. The Republicans did a good job of assuring the election of Mr. O, and I see no reason to think they might not do just as well in helping Mrs. C.

    • Since you seem to know so much about running a perfect campaign, why don't you do more than just comment about the losers and kicking them down and do more to help this country? If you truly love it.

  • That bitch will go to her grave with a lie on her lips riding the Hell Bound Supertrain. She is Her own author of defeat by being the boot licking lackie she is and has always been. She should sell the President out by telling the truth and pleading "I was just doing my duty as any good American would", may be then someone might belive her , as is, all we see now is the person who let our people die for no reason. Let the whore rot in her very bad decisions.

    • Wow, when I say stuff like that I get deleted. Love it..."a lie on her lips riding the Hell Bound Supertrain" "boot licking lackey" hahhahahhhaahaaaa LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!

  • Hillary laughed on tape about getting a child rapist off the hook in court. Bill made more than 30 visits to jeffry epstein's child sex slavery island. The only explanation for anyone supporting Clintons at this point is that their supporters are all creepy pedos, child molesters, and child rapists who hope to have an ally in a position of power when they get caught raping a kid.

      • Just ask your google. You will discover immediately that it is accurate info. Bill was named in the Epstein lawsuit several months ago and the tape of Hillary laughing about getting a child rapist off in court has been out more than 2 years.

  • Okay, so Obama and Hillary both understand that giving work permits to millions of illegal aliens is harmful to working class Citizens and legal immigrants, but they choose to abandon their better judgment and convictions in hopes of scoring a cheap vote to make up for votes they lost? And here i always thought it was the republicans who were spineless jerks.

    • So much attention to the exceptions. Why can't losers just go back and learn that the ideas presented to voters didn't appeal. I have faith in the American people and their vote.

  • I generally agree that people who have been here for a long time, have families, and no criminal record, etc. should be allowed a path to work, get a green card, and not be deported. BUT the border must be secured first and it must be approved by Congress. Hillary made a HUGE mistake here because what Obama did is totally illegal. He (not for the first time) is trampling the constitution and the lies about other Presidents doing it too are not the same. Obama cannot give social security numbers, work permits, etc. That is the exclusive right of Congress, regardless if I like it or Obama likes it. Yes he can exercise selective prosecution but that's it. So Hillary is saying that she has no more regard for the law and if elected she will also have an Imperial Presidency. This is worse than anything we have seen since Richard Nixon. This Executive Branch power grab is very dangerous to the foundation of our society and government. We don't have King's, Czars, Emperors, or Dictators and that is what Obama is doing. I hope the Supreme Court slaps Obama down again and then Hillary is on record saying she won't follow the constitution either.

  • She took a big risk because the court cases ruling it's unconstitutional will be coming up while she's running. And she'll have to explain why she supported it. Plus you've got the employer mandate for the ACA about to kick in, and the middle class is wearing the target for that and the ever increasing costs. She doesn't stand a chance. The only people who vote for her will be the ones who can afford it.

  • She'd run over a pile of babies with golf cleats if she could get votes out of it, is it a suprise that she is selling out the will of the majority (national security, economy, taxpayers, education system, healthcare system) if she thinks she can bleed a few more votes? Hillary is pure evil. A woman for president? Absolutely, it's about time. This woman? Hell NO!

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Richard D. Baris

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