Jeb Bush Leans Heavy on FL Record in Speech, But Does it Hold Up?

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush formally announced his 2016 bid at a rally in Miami Monday, leaning heavily on his executive experience to make his case to voters. Bush, who became number 11 in the crowded field of Republicans vying for the nomination, vowed to use his executive experience to take Washington “out of the business of causing problems.”

“I know we can fix this. Because I’ve done it,” he said.

Despite the Fox News instant transformation from news outfit to Bush cheerleader, the son and brother of the 41st and 43rd president, respectively, is not the frontrunner by any relevant measure this early in a presidential cycle.

Bush currently enjoys a slight 0.2-point lead in the nationwide Republican presidential nomination polls, according to the PPD average. But it’s a tenuous lead at best, a lead actual data indicate is due to name recognition rather than devoted, energized support among primary voters.

The former Florida governor, who trails Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in Iowa and is roughly tied with the him in New Hampshire, has the highest unfavorable ratings measured proportional to name recognition. Holding no clear frontrunner status in either of the first two early contests, he also has the largest number of voters who say they will never support him in both primary and general elections.

That said, it isn’t the intention here to beat up on Jeb. It is simply necessary to underscore these “fundamental” and “structural” challenges to emphasize that his record — or, at least how he sells it to voters — will matter in 2016.

The two oft-cited gripes conservative voters have with Jeb — not counting the utter letdowns his father (taxes) and brother (spending) turned out to be for the base — are his stances on Common Core and immigration. Because we have only comments to go on regarding the latter, let’s dive into his record on the economy, his advancement of or hinderance to limited government and the record on education.

Economic Record

The Club for Growth just recently shared their Presidential White Paper analysis of the economic freedom record of Gov. Bush with PPD. Their findings and their take on what they found in their research further underscore part of Jeb’s problem. Conservatives, despite positive accomplishments in his record, simply don’t know which Bush they will get if he becomes the 45th president.

“As the two-term governor of Florida, Jeb Bush has an extensive record on the issues of taxes, spending, entitlement reform, and government regulation,” said Club for Growth President David McIntosh. “He fought for major tax cuts, proposed sweeping reforms to Medicaid in Florida, and has been a leading advocate for school choice.”

While we will dive into Bush’s record on school choice and his education record in Florida shortly, there were findings that clearly contradict some of the statements (or, rather promises) made in the speech today. Bush vowed to take the nation from energy dependent to energy independent, within five years, which will help the economy to grow at a 4-percent GDP rate annually.

However, the Club’s research gives reason to doubt — or least hesitate — to believe that pledge.

“Our White Paper also identifies concerns with the Bush record, including the fact that state spending exceeded inflation and population growth in Florida, and Bush supported restrictions on oil and gas extraction,” he added. “Overall, though, on many key issues of economic freedom, we believe the record in Florida shows that Bush often governed as a pro-growth conservative.”

But, as Mr. McIntosh pointed out, as Bush has turned his attention toward transitioning from sight-seer to presidential candidate, “his economic agenda for the future has been light on details. Thus, he leaves open the question of whether, as president, he would be more like the Governor Bush of old, or the more recent, cautious establishment candidate Bush.”

Education Record

While Bush was governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007, the state “made dramatic improvements in the academic outcomes of all its students,” according to a report from the conservative Heritage Foundation in 2010. Efforts to narrow the nationwide achievement gap in grades K-12 between white students and minorities, particularly among blacks and Hispanics, were profoundly successful.

Matthew Ladner and Lindsey M. Burke, the authors of the report, cited parental choice, higher standards, and both accountability and flexibility for pushing the state’s black students to either match or outperform the statewide reading average, helping to surpass 8 states, and for Hispanics to do the same juxtaposed to 31 states.

And the teachers’ unions hate him, which should be a boon among conservative voters.

“Florida enacted a series of far-reaching K-12 reforms despite opposition by the teacher unions,” Ladner and Burke said. “The result was unique: The unions effectively lost control of K-12 policy in Florida.”

However, it’s also true that unions and conservatives — notably Michelle Malkin — ironically find common ground in their opposition to the reforms put in place by Gov. Bush, which are now called the A+ Plan for Education.

“After 15 years of this approach, students are a little better at taking tests,” Florida Education Association (FEA) spokesman Mark Pudlow argues. “But many of the subjects that get children excited about learning have been curtailed or eliminated so that they can spend more time on the tests, public schools are still chronically underfunded and teachers are left feeling under-appreciated.”

If it sounds like an anti-Common Core sentiment — save for the claim public schools are underfunded — that would be because it is.

It’s fair to conclude that the former Florida governor would have been a far more conservative president than either his brother or father were if, say, “Bush 2000 to 2007” made a bid. However, it is also a fair position to remain skeptical of Jeb, precisely because pedigree and recent comments suggest we don’t know if that’s the man running for president in 2016.