Donald Trump speaks beside former U.S. Senator Scott Brown at a campaign rally in Portsmouth, N.H., in January. (Photo: Reuters)
Donald Trump has won the New Hampshire Republican primary decisively, carrying Concord and Manchester counties with roughly a 20-point margin. Trump, the flamboyant billionaire real estate mogul, carried voters on every major issue, dominated among independents (undeclared), and tied Ohio Gov. John Kasich among late-deciding voters at 21%.
With nearly 80% of supporters digging in weeks before the election, The Donald’s support overwhelmed the surging Kasich, who is currently in second. PPD projects he will hold on to second place after placing eight in the Iowa caucus.
Trump led in 77 consecutive polls and the PPD aggregate average of New Hampshire Republican primary polls since July and was pegged at 72% likelihood on the PPD Election Projection Model, the most accurate forecast in 2014.
With Florida Sen. Marco Rubio trailing in behind Kasich, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, his 3-2-1 strategy failed and his campaign is in big trouble. In 45 years, no Republican candidate has ever lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and gone on to earn the nomination.
Now, the Republican contest heads to South Carolina, where Trump leads his closest rival Sen. Cruz 36% to 19%. While Cruz plans to compete hard in the Palmetto State, The Donald heads South with the momentum. Even though most pundits talk about the state as if it was closer to Iowa than New Hampshire, it has a strong track record of following the winds of New Hampshire. Of course, one of the most noteworthy exceptions was 2012, when former Speaker Newt Gingrich defeated former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Gov. Romney stumbled badly in the debate right before the vote and Gingrich shined. Ultimately, Romney won the nomination. Despite the narrative, the Palmetto State is not as conservative or as evangelical as it once was but, even when it was, it has swung with New Hampshire all but once in recent GOP nomination history.
New Hampshire Republican primary exit polls showed more than four in 10 Republican voters say they’re angry with the way the federal government is working. It was a similar 42 percent in Iowa. Of the 43% are angry, 37% chose Trump while 17% chose Cruz. He also carried 57% of those who say they wanted a political outsider. Four in 10 Republican voters chose their candidates in the final days, but Trump and Kasich each pulled 21%, with Bush and Rubio behind at 13%. Trump carried 29% of the independent vote, which is double-digits above his closest rival (Kasich: 17%).
The bottom line, Trump dominated across the board on the most important issues, including winning two-thirds of those who said “telling it like it is” was pivotal to their vote. The national frontrunner defeated a crowded field by a similiar (likely larger when the votes are tallied) margin than Gov. Romney defeated a smaller, weaker field in 2012. Romney carried the state over Ron Paul 39.3% to 22.9%, while Trump currently leads Kasich 34% to 15%.
On turnout, Vermont socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders touted the “record turnout” and slammed the Republican Party in his victory speech. However, as a fact-check, Republican turnout once again appears to have handily beaten Democratic turnout by at least 30,000 votes. Independents voted disproportionately with Republicans and the party voted at a higher rate. According to PPD’s Party Affiliation, Ideology by U.S. State Map, which was just released this week, the Republican Party has an ID edge of 8.8%.
