The Euro model (ECMWF) forecasts Hurricane Michael to make landfall at the Florida Panhandle and Big Ben along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The model above tracks over a 240-hour period beginning the evening of Monday, October 8, 2018.
The consensus for the models anticipates Michael will strengthen at least to a Category 2, but expected to make landfall as a Category 3.
Florida Governor Rick Scott issued Executive Order 18-276 declaring a state of emergency in Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Hamilton, Suwannee, Lafayette, Dixie, Columbia, Gilchrist, Levy and Citrus counties.
That order was later amended to extend to Baker, Union, Bradford, Alachua, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee.
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the reconnaissance aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with even higher gusts. It’s forecast to strengthen from a steady to rapid pace over the next 24 hours or so. Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night.
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