Hurricane Dorian Slows on Approach [ECMWF (Euro) + GFS + HWRF Forecasts]

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models for August 30 at 5AM EST

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian Stalls, Forecasts Dangerously Close to Florida [ECMWF (Euro) + GFS + HWRF]

While uncertainty in the models persists, Hurricane Dorian is forecast to strengthen and now slowdown on approach ahead of Florida. The storm is currently on a northwestern track as a Category 2 and packing maximum sustained winds near 105 mph (gusts higher).

The above forecasts include the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) over a 240-hour period beginning at 5:00 AM EST.

The likelihood of Dorian increasing to a Category 4 ahead of landfall at Southeastern Florida is now significantly higher.

Due to a weak northern ridge, the forecasts now expect a slow down somewhere near the Northern Bahamas to South Florida and even Central Florida. That pushes back the arrival of the storm and could mean prolonged winds, storm surge and rain, leading to flooding.

On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, said Dorian is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

The minimum central pressure based on data from an earlier Hurricane Hunter mission is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

Governor Ron DeSantis sent a letter to President Donald Trump on Thursday formally requesting that he declare a pre-landfall disaster for all 67 counties.

“The trajectory of this storm remains uncertain, and this declaration will provide us with the necessary resources to ensure the state is fully prepared,” Governor DeSantis said. “I am confident the President will grant my request and show his full support for Florida.”

President Trump cancelled his trip to Poland in order to support Floridians and other Americans impacted by Hurricane Dorian.