Hurricane Dorian Stalls Over Grand Bahama Island, Forecasts Dangerously Close to Florida [ECMWF (Euro) + GFS + HWRF]

ECMWF (Euro), GFS, HWRF Models for September 2 At 8:30AM EST

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian has been downgraded to a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph (250 km/h), down from 165 mph from this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches), up slightly from 916 mb (27.05 inches) this morning and 911 mb on Sunday.

Satellite imagery does appear to show the beginning of the forecasted turn North, Northwest.

ORIGINAL

On Monday, the ECMWF (Euro), GFS, and HWRF forecast models show the track for Hurricane Dorian just off the east coast of Florida, though uncertainty over the impact to the Southeastern U.S. remains.

The above forecasts — generated via Tropical Tidbits — include the ECMWF (Euro) and GFS over a 240-hour period beginning at September 2, 2019 at 8:30 AM EST. The HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model), which until today did forecast landfall at Cape Canaveral, covers a 126-hour period.

On Sunday, Dorian was upgraded to a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and is now packing maximum sustained winds near 165 mph (275 km/h) with higher gusts upwards of 200 mph. Dorian wreaked havoc over the Abaco Islands on Sunday packing maximum sustained winds of 185 mph with gusts over 200 mph, upwards of 220 mph.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, said steering currents have weakened. As a result, Hurricane Dorian has stalled and almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, moving west near 1 mph (2 km/h).

A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day before making a gradual turn toward the northwest and north.

Hurricane Dorian will continue to have a catastrophic impact on Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The eye expanded to near 20 nautical miles and the storm will move dangerously close to the east coast of Florida east tonight through Wednesday evening.

A slight deviation to the west of the official NHC forecast — approximately 20-30 miles — would result in the core of Dorian near or over the coast. To put that in perspective, the average track error for forecasting models is 70 miles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches), up slightly from 911 mb on Sunday.

A drop in pressure typically indicates a storm is strengthening, while an increase typically indicates weakening. The eye and the entire storm will expand as it weakens, as well. While a weakening may sound like positive news, that expansion increases the likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina later this week.