Israeli Exit Polls: Netanyahu, Likud Lead Zionist Union In 1, Tied In 2

The first exit polls from the hotly contested Israeli election show Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party closed the gap on Isaac Herzog and the Zionist Union. Netanyahu and Likud lead Herzog and the Zionist Union with 28 seats to 27 in one exit poll, while the two are tied at 27 in two others. All were released at 10:00 p.m. local time (4:00 p.m. ET).

Channel 2’s poll had the Likud with 28 mandates, Zionist Union with 27 mandates, the Joint Arab List with 13 mandates, Yesh Atid with 12 mandates, Kulanu with 9 mandates, Bayit Yehudi with 8 mandates, Shas with 7 mandates, United Torah Judaism with 6 mandates, Meretz with 5 mandates, Yisrael Beytenu with 5 mandates and Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold.

Channel 10’s polls had the Zionist Union with 27 mandates, the Likud with 27 mandates, the Joint Arab List with 13 mandates, Yesh Atid with 11 mandates, Kulanu with10 mandates, Bayit Yehudi with 8 mandates, Shas with 7 mandates, United Torah Judaism with 7 mandates, Meretz with 5 mandates, Yisrael Beytenu with 5 mandates and Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold.

Channel 1’s polls had the Zionist Union with 27 mandates, the Likud with 27 mandates, the Joint Arab List with 13 mandates, Yesh Atid with 12 mandates, Kulanu with 10 mandates, Bayit Yehudi with 9 mandates, Shas with 7 mandates, United Torah Judaism with 6 mandates, Meretz with 5 mandates, Yisrael Beytenu with 5 mandates and Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold.

The final polls showed the Likud party trailing the Leftist Zionist Union party led by Tzipi Livni and Isaac Herzog, who predicted an “upheaval” on Tuesday. However, if the exit polls hold true, previous polls either missed Netanyahu’s last-minute momentum or underestimated the Likud GOTV machine. It isn’t at all unlikely considering Israeli law does not allow for media to release polling four days before the election, nor exit polls to be published prior to the closure of the polls, and events were ripe for photo-finish.

In truth, news outlets such as the Jerusalem Post, FOX News, and right here at PPD, were more focused on the leftists’ GOTV operations in large part due to the role President Barack Obama played. As was first reported by PPD back in late January, White House political operatives were actively supporting the ouster of the prime minister.

PPD learned on Monday that a bipartisan Senate committee has been established to investigate the Obama administration’s use of several taxpayer-funded State Department grants to support OneVoice, a U.S.-based left-wing activist group started by five Democrats. OneVoice received two taxpayer-funded grants from the U.S. State Department in the past year totaling at least $200,000. The group joined forces with the group V15 – who has a reputed mission of “anyone but Bibi” – to defeat Netanyahu together. V15 is run by well-known Obama political operative, Jeremy Bird, who served as Obama’s 2012 field director.

But Prime Minister Netanyahu — albeit late — recognized he was in the fight of his political life and shifted focus, message and rhetoric. In recent days, Netanyahu has been on a get-out-the-vote campaign blitz and also increased his nationalist rhetoric, warning a Leftist dovish government would spell disaster for the security of his country. He had called the election two years ahead of schedule, but at the time the possibility of a Likud loss was far from the minds of Israelis and analysts alike.

The cycle has seen a level of international interference never before seen in Israeli elections.

During a Tel Aviv rally Sunday, Netanyahu slammed outside influence through funding “from abroad” and attributed his drop in the polls to a “worldwide” effort to unseat him. Speaking to some 20,000 on Monday, he vowed there would be “no withdrawals” from the West Bank and “no concessions” to those who don’t have Israel’s vital interests in mind and heart.

“The choice is symbolic: the Likud led by me, that will continue to stand firmly for (Israel’s) vital interests, compared with a left-wing government … ready to accept any dictate,” Netanyahu said in his speech at Har Homa.

Also on Monday, Netanyahu vowed there would be no Palestinian state as long as he remained prime minister, an effort to shore up support among conservative security voters. The effort appears to have paid off, even if Likud ends up a handful of seats behind Herzog, Livni, and the rest of the left-wing Zionist Union.

Still, as PPD previously examined, Netanyahu is still end up in the best position to put together a governing coalition, even if the exit polls don’t hold. Neither Likud nor the Zionist Union will garner anywhere near the 61-seat majority of the 120-seat Parliament required to outright form a government, thus the real question becomes whether it will be Netanyahu or Herzog who will persuade enough third-party support to form a coalition that puts them at the 61-vote threshold.

That candidate will earn the approval of Israeli President Reuvin Rivlin, himself a Likud party member. As of now, PPD’s data and political analysis find virtually no path to the premiership for Herzog and the Zionist Union. In fact, neither does a confident Netanyahu.

Meanwhile, in what was perhaps a reaction to internal polling showing a tighter-than-expected race, the two reversed themselves on a plan to rotate the premiership between Mr. Herzog of the Labor Party and Ms. Livni of the smaller Hatnua faction, stating now that Herzog alone would serve as the leader.

The rotation agreement had been seen by some voters as a sign of weakness, and Netanyahu slammed the idea focusing on the less popular Ms. Livni, who is seen as a Palestinian apologist to many centrist voters.