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Netanyahu Declares Victory In Israeli Elections, Begins Coalition-Building Efforts

Celebrations at the Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv, March 17, 2015. (photo credit:MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared victory in Tuesday’s Israeli elections after the first exit polls showed Likud ahead or tied with the Zionist Union. Netanyahu took to Twitter and Facebook after the Likud’s better-than-expected performance.

“Against all odds, a great victory for the Likud, for the nationalist camp led by the Likud, and for the people of Israel,” the prime minister said on Facebook.

Netanyahu’s Likud performed significantly better than expected after pre-election polls had shown the prime minister’s party trailing the Zionist Union, which is headed up by Tzipi Livni and Isaac Herzog, by an average of four mandates.

Speaking by phone with Bayit Yehudi leader Naftali Bennett, Shas chief Arye Deri, and Moshe Gafni of United Torah Judaism, the nation’s longest-serving prime minister has already begun the political legwork of cobbling together a coalition, a task that was all but certain ahead of the election no matter the party with the most mandates.

Bennett congratulated Netanyahu for his “victory,” and the two have already come to a mutual agreement to begin negotiations for the formation of a nationalistic coalition government that would work to “better the security and well-being of the Israeli people.”

However, it is the conversation with Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon that holds the greatest political intrigue for outsiders, onlookers and analysts. Kahlon, a former Likud party member and communications minister, was outwardly campaigning for finance ministry, though declined Netanyahu’s recent pre-election offer. He told both leaders moments after the exit polls came out that he would decide which faction his party would align themselves with depending on the official ballot results.

As of now, the exit polls suggest his party will have between 9 and 10 mandates to offer one or both coalitions.

Meanwhile, the Zionist Union rejected the idea that the results of the exit polls show that Netanyahu will form the next coalition.

“The Likud continues to err. The right-wing bloc has gotten smaller,” said a Zionist statement. “Everything is open until the final results are in and we will know which parties passed the electoral threshold and what kind of government we can form. All of the spin and the commentary is too early. We have formed a negotiating team with the goal of putting together a coalition led by Herzog.”

Regardless, both Netanyahu and Herzog will attempt to convince Israeli President Reuvin Rivlin, himself a Likud party member, they can bring together a strong coalition without a unity government. Rivlin has already signaled that he prefers a unity government to Netanyahu’s way, which would alone be a nationalist coalition. But it is unclear whether he will push too hard for it if the results are even stronger-than-expected for Likud.

Aides to Rivlin say he won’t “force” a unity government on Netanyahu, but rather will “encourage” both men to form one.

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Richard D. Baris

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."

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Richard D. Baris

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