(Note: Hover over state to view latest ObamaCare enrollment numbers, including total private enrollment versus Medicaid. It is important to note that Medicaid/CHIP enrollment includes those who have been determined eligible.)
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The White House has been touting the latest ObamaCare enrollment numbers, but both a broad and state-by-state examination of new data suggests serious death spiral danger. Overall, putting aside the ratio of young vs. old for a moment, the map above shows the breakdown of selected Marketplace plans versus Medicaid enrollment.
The severity of the ratio is labeled by color, with deep red indicating states who report their latest ObamaCare enrollment numbers to be either upside-down or nearly total enrollment. Worth noting, not one state improved their ratio since the last analysis when HHS released number for mid-December, shifting their state to blue where the ratio is stable and in-line with projections.
Once again, as we can see in the table below, the totality of enrollments is far too lop-sided toward Medicaid, with the number of individuals selecting a plan including those who have not paid. The number of individuals who enrolled who are 18 – 34-years old represents just 24 percent of all of the latest ObamaCare enrollment numbers.
According to the CBO, or the Congressional Budget Office, that number needs to increase to at least 40 percent. As PeoplesPunditDaily.com previously reported, Humana said it expects the risk pool to be disproportionately sicker, which the data confirms, further increasing cost far more than anticipated. Furthermore, insurers tell us that just 5 – 15 percent of those individuals who have selected a plan in either Marketplace have actually paid their first premium, as of the beginning of the new year.
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On the number of persons who have had a Medicaid/CHIP Determination or Assessment through the Marketplaces — which totaled an astounding 1.6 million, or nearly 75 percent of all persons who chose a plan — the latest ObamaCare enrollment numbers do not even include individuals who are applying through State Medicaid/CHIP agencies.
In essence, the number of new Medicaid enrollees is even larger than the government’s new numbers suggest on the surface.
By observing the amount of individuals who have selected Silver, Gold, and Platinum plans in the Marketplaces — totaling 80 percent of all plans selected — we know that some of our worst fears are being confirmed. The people who are expressing interest in the Marketplace plans are older, sicker Americans who need more generous coverage.
Bottom Line
While the Obama administration and the Democratic Party have their talking points down, repeatedly boasting the increased enrollment, they are still far behind their own projections and the specific data points are even worse. If the trend continues, cost will dramatically increase, state and federal budgets will explode, and the possibility of an insurance death spiral gets real — real quick.
Insurance companies, who have a bailout written into the law itself, have won out either way.
