A whopping 9 out of the top 10 states losing population are Democrat-led bastions or recently Democrat-leaning states on the presidential level. What’s even more damning to the Democratic Party, that is, if Republicans were half-way competent enough to communicate the indictment, is that whatever positive trends can be observed in these states occurred after the Republican rout in 2010.
For instance, under the leadership of Gov. John Kasich, Ohio now leads the Midwest in job creation and is number five in the nation. With a 6.5 percent unemployment rate, down from over 10 percent under Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, the Buckeye State is beginning to show improvement and again offer individuals and business incentives to stay in-state. But, again, that wasn’t the case in recent years.
Michigan, too, now under Republican Gov. Rick Snyder, actually saw a population increase for the first time this decade from 2012 to 2013, as net migration slowed to about 28,500, down from more than 33,000 in 2011-2012. High taxes on a shrinking tax base, fueled by a decades-long need to fund bankruptcy-inducing union pensions, had pushed once-productive citizens from the city that was once called the “Arsenal of Democracy.”
Gov. Rick Snyder is favored to win reelection come November on our 2014 Governor Map Predictions, though he could lose some of his party allies in the legislature.
Here are the top 10 states “Americans are fleeing,” according to the list compiled by Real Clear Politics. Forbes compiled a list, as well, and although they had the usual actors, they were in a slightly different order. I have tweaked the RCP descriptions a bit, but would still like to tip my hat to them. They did a great job in the magazine.
- New York, as usual, was a wasteland in the analysis. The Empire State has led the nation in domestic out-migration since the late 1990s. The New York Post reported in 2011 that “62 percent of New Yorkers planning to leave cited economic factors — including cost of living (30 percent), taxes (19 percent) and the job environment (10 percent) — as the main reasons.” Obviously, aside from former GOP Gov. George Pataki some years ago, and a miraculous turnaround when he shared power with Republican Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the state is a liberal mecca. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: -104,470
- According to IllinoisPolicy.org, residents have left the state at a rate of one person every 10 minutes for the last 15 years. Taxes, corruption and housing prices, all have had Illinois losing on a net basis for years, but more than 806,000 people made up their out-migration between 1995 and 2009. Perhaps, Illinois voters are sick of the Democratic disaster, because the Illinois governor race is favorable to Republican nominee Bruce Rauner in November. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: – 67,313
- According to the Los Angeles Times, the decade measured by the most recent census was the first in a century in which the majority of Californians were native-born, reflecting the state’s transition from a place many Americans are drawn to into a place many prefer to leave. Driven away by high home prices during the housing bubble, enormously high taxes of all kinds, and a deteriorating jobs market, Californians have steadily been leaving for other states for most of the last decade. And who is the biggest benefactor of California’s former most-productive citizens? The answer, for several years, has been the largest Republican state in the union — Texas. GOP nominee Greg Abbott is highly favored to win the Texas governor race in November. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: – 49,259
- According to a study using data collected by the United Van Lines, 64 percent more people left New Jersey than moved there in 2012-2013. The state has preposterously high property taxes, state and local taxes and, prior to Governor Chris Christie, was dominated by Democratic rule. Following his big, historic reelection win, the blue machine had to find something to stop the governor, even if they cannot tie any wrongdoing to him. Though the Ft. Lee closures were gross abuses of power by staffers, as a long-time resident of the Garden State with friends and family still calling it home, I take this personally. Then again, I suppose traffic is more important than bettering people’s lives. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: – 45,035
- The Keystone State’s population grew a bit in 2012-2013 to 12,773,801, but growth was fueled by foreign immigration to the larger cities and positive birth rates. While net population increased by about 9,300, 30,718, more native Pennsylvanians chose to leave for other states. It will be a battleground for incumbent Republican Gov. Tom Corbet in Nov., whom we view as the most vulnerable GOP incumbent on our 2014 Governor Map Predictions. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: – 30,718
- Michigan saw a population increase for the first time this decade in 2012-2013 (a 0.1% gain), as the net outflow migration slowed to about 28,500, down from more than 33,000 in 2011-2012. Michigan remains the nation’s ninth most-populous state for now, but if current trends continue, North Carolina will bump it to 10th place sometime next year. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: – 28,539
- A local NBC affiliate reports that “three-fourths of Ohio’s counties had a net loss of residents because of people moving out” of the state. Hocking County lost the most people, with a drop of 2.34 percent, while Franklin County (Columbus) maintained healthy growth, actually increasing its population by 4 percent over the last three years. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: – 23,094
- Despite improving economic indicators, Blue Connecticut has recovered “not quite half” of the jobs lost to the 2008 recession, the Hartford Courant reports. With the jobs picture recovering, it is not surprising that about 17,000 more citizens chose to leave the Constitution State than move there in 2013. We tend to think of Connecticut as a Democratic stronghold, because of Republican performance on the presidential level. Yet, Republican governors held the governor’s office for 16 years in a row prior to Malloy winning in 2010, though they are unable to truly practice conservative governance thanks to Hartford. Voters in the Nutmeg State, however, have been more than willing to turn to the Republican Party on a gubernatorial basis, because perhaps, they like checks and balances on total liberal government. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: -17,224
- Kansas is the only Republican-dominated state on the list, which saw an outward migration net loss of 12,557 people in 2012-2013. This loss is up from just under 6,000 the previous year. However, even with this increase, the state’s high birth rate and foreign immigration was enough to keep the overall population growth rate positive. According to the Kansas City Star, Sedgwick County (Wichita) alone had 25,480 births (and 13,226 deaths) during 2012-2013, counterbalancing those lost to outward domestic migration. This is a testament to the basic value that holds traditional family in high regard. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: -12,557
- New Mexico kicks off the list of states experiencing the highest negative net domestic migration. The latest one-year tally from the Census Bureau, compiled here by William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution, shows that approximately 10,000 more people moved out of the Land of Enchantment than entered it in the calendar year ending July 1, 2013. 2012-2013 state-to-state net domestic migration: -10,526
