Governor Christie Would Win New Jersey’s 14 Electoral Votes

In a recent article, “Governor Christie Would Smash Through the Blue Wall,” I argued that Governor Christie would do what Mitt Romney could not; win suburban voters in larger margins and encroach on urban voters in the Northeast.

In a new Rasmussen survey, a plurality – 44% – of New Jersey voters would vote for Governor Christie if he was to run for president, while 37% have already made up their minds that they would like to see him run.

However, the one piece of data that people have already begun to ground an opposing argument in is the solid 41% of voters who disagreed with the idea of a Governor Christie presidential campaign.

I would argue that number is not high enough to be taken as sign that he would have a hard time winning New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes. The reasons are very simple.

Likability matters – a lot – and Governor Christie is very likable. The latest Stockton College poll, which showed that his lead over Democratic challenger Buono has actually increased to 64% – 24%, with a whole 3 out of 4 voters holding a favorable opinion of Governor Christie.

In the Rasmussen survey 22% of voters reported to be undecided over the question of Christie running for president, and with a likability factor hovering around 75%, history is on the Governor’s side. Out of the 22% who are undecided, Governor Christie only needs to win over 6.1%.

It is true that no GOP presidential candidate has been able to put New Jersey in the red column since 1988 – Ronald Reagan – but the vote share has actually fluctuated quite a bit.

For instance, Al Gore won New Jersey with a 16% margin, but in President Bush’s 2004 reelection victory, John Kerry won the state with a 7% margin, a 9% drop in Democratic support.

Admittedly, New Jersey was one of only two states that President Obama actually increased his margin of victory in the 2012 presidential election. In 2008, Obama won New Jersey by 15% and in 2012 by 17%, a 2% increase.

However, for Governor Christie, his willingness to work with President Obama is seen among New Jersey voters as one of the primary reasons to support him. In a recent survey that specifically questioned voters on their reason for supporting Christie so strongly, his ability to work with President Obama and the opposite party was the paramount factor and most frequent response.

The biggest factor that the Romney campaign not only underestimated, but seemingly was completely ignorant of was the fact that voters will not vote for you if they do not like you. We now know that the Obama campaign used behavioral psychologists to construct a personality for Mitt Romney that the American people would loathe. This is simply not  a tactic that would work in a state that knows the Governor the best. And in the last article, in which I address Governor Christie’s appeal nationwide in more detail, my claim – for now – seems to be holding its own.

Polling Data

Potential Head-To-Head 2016 Match-ups (CO)