In light of the momentum, which has culminated with Ohio Governor Kasich enjoying an all-time high approval rating, I just may have to move Ohio to safe Republican.
I normally do not make hasty calls, and am even more hesitant to base any decision off of one poll, but Kasich has seen an astonishing turnaround that started the better part of a year ago. As it stands now, voters by a 49% – 37% margin say that Governor Kasich deserves to be reelected.
What is accounting for this shift in popular opinion? It was not too long ago that the governor’s approval rating was taking a huge beating behind the backdrop of a bitter union fight – which he lost. Simple and short – the economy. As I stated in my full analysis over the weekend, the economic improvement in a particular state can be an enormous boon for the incumbent.
One of the major concerns I have about changing the rating of this race, is that Governor Kasich is still just under the magic number. “But he is awfully close,” as Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute put it.To explain the dynamic, he added:
Ohio voters think their economy is getting better and they credit Mr. Kasich more than they credit President Barack Obama for that brightening economic environment. Of course there are still 16 months until Election Day, so anything can happen. After all, 16 months ago, Kasich’s job approval was a negative 40 – 46 percent, at the beginning of his reversal of fortunes from when his job approval was in the 30s.
I have listed the key findings of the survey below. What we can ascertain from these numbers is that Governor Kasich runs strong against a field of Democratic candidates that are unknown to Ohio voters. If the Democrats hope to compete, then they must raise their favorability ratings as the people begin to get to know then better.
However, it simply may not be enough. In the trends that I have included below, it is evident that the voters of Ohio view the state’s economic condition as improving, and even more beneficial, is that Governor Kasich is getting the credit – not Barack Obama.
This is a very different political landscape in Ohio than it was leading up to the 2012 election. Republican governors have a story to tell based in economic reform and getting a handle on the budget – which I have not included but is split 46 – 38 approve. Because Mitt Romney failed to make this case, Obama received more credit than he no doubt deserved, but Kasich has not let that happen in his own election bid.
I will make the call whether or not to change the rating on this race by the end of the week. For a full analysis of the 2014 governor race ratings, click here.
| If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Fitzgerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? | |
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Fitzgerald 33% 3% 74% 28% 26% 40%
Kasich 47 86 11 45 56 38
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 5 5 3
DK/NA 15 9 13 20 11 19
COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS..............
Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Fitzgerald 37% 32% 41% 28% 30% 32% 36% 32% 35%
Kasich 47 46 38 55 55 49 40 49 47
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 - - - 3 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 4 2 3 4 6 3 3
DK/NA 14 16 14 14 13 14 16 15 16
|
| If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Cordray the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? | |
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Cordray 36% 3% 78% 32% 30% 41%
Kasich 47 88 10 44 54 39
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 2 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 3 3
DK/NA 14 8 10 18 11 16
COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS..............
Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Cordray 40% 34% 43% 31% 34% 33% 38% 36% 35%
Kasich 47 46 37 56 56 53 39 48 47
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 - - 2 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 4 1 3 1 8 2 2
DK/NA 11 14 15 11 7 14 13 13 15
|
| Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? | |
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 47% 76% 22% 46% 57% 38% Unfavorable 28 7 47 30 22 33 Hvn't hrd enough 22 15 30 20 19 26 REFUSED 3 2 1 4 2 3 |
| Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? | |
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 54% 81% 32% 52% 62% 47%
Disapprove 32 8 54 33 28 37
DK/NA 13 10 14 15 10 17
COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS..............
Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Approve 54% 54% 50% 59% 60% 63% 49% 53% 54%
Disapprove 37 31 34 32 31 21 35 35 34
DK/NA 8 15 16 9 9 16 16 11 13
|
| Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the economy? | |
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 52% 76% 34% 50% 61% 44%
Disapprove 37 16 54 40 31 43
DK/NA 11 8 12 11 8 13
COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS..............
Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Approve 58% 50% 47% 57% 58% 58% 43% 54% 55%
Disapprove 35 38 40 34 37 26 48 37 34
DK/NA 7 12 13 8 5 15 9 9 12
|
| TREND: Would you describe the state of Ohio’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? (*Low also 5% Dec 2008, Feb 2009) | |
EXCELLENT+GOOD
High Low
Jun 25 Apr 18 Mar 18 Feb 06 Dec 11 Jun 25 Mar 18
2013 2013 2009 2009 2008 2013 2009*
Excellent 2 2 - - - 2 -
Good 40 36 5 5 5 40 5
Not so good 42 44 36 33 36 42 36
Poor 15 16 59 61 58 15 59
DK/NA 1 2 - 1 1 1 -
|
| TREND: Do you think Ohio’s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? | |
Jun 25 Apr 18 Dec 11
2013 2013 2012
Better 44 43 42
Worse 11 13 19
The same 42 43 38
DK/NA 2 1 1
|
| TREND: (If economy better) How much credit, if any, do you think the Obama administration should receive for this; a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all? | |
ECONOMY BETTER
Jun 25 Dec 11
2013 2012
A lot 15 31
Some 28 27
A little 20 13
None at all 35 28
DK/NA 1 -
|
| TREND: (If economy better) How much credit, if any, do you think the Kasich administration should receive for this; a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all? | |
ECONOMY BETTER
Jun 25 Dec 11
2013 2012
A lot 29 23
Some 43 38
A little 19 27
None at all 5 10
DK/NA 4 2
|
