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Ohio Governor Kasich Way Ahead As Approval Hits All-Time High

In light of the momentum, which has culminated with Ohio Governor Kasich enjoying an all-time high approval rating, I just may have to move Ohio to safe Republican.

I normally do not make hasty calls, and am even more hesitant to base any decision off of one poll, but Kasich has seen an astonishing turnaround that started the better part of a year ago. As it stands now, voters by a 49% – 37% margin say that Governor Kasich deserves to be reelected.

What is accounting for this shift in popular opinion? It was not too long ago that the governor’s approval rating was taking a huge beating behind the backdrop of a bitter union fight – which he lost. Simple and short – the economy. As I stated in my full analysis over the weekend, the economic improvement in a particular state can be an enormous boon for the incumbent.

One of the major concerns I have about changing the rating of this race, is that Governor Kasich is still just under the magic number. “But he is awfully close,” as Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute put it.To explain the dynamic, he added:

Ohio voters think their economy is getting better and they credit Mr. Kasich more than they credit President Barack Obama for that brightening economic environment. Of course there are still 16 months until Election Day, so anything can happen. After all, 16 months ago, Kasich’s job approval was a negative 40 – 46 percent, at the beginning of his reversal of fortunes from when his job approval was in the 30s.

I have listed the key findings of the survey below. What we can ascertain from these numbers is that Governor Kasich runs strong against a field of Democratic candidates that are unknown to Ohio voters. If the Democrats hope to compete, then they must raise their favorability ratings as the people begin to get to know then better.

However, it simply may not be enough. In the trends that I have included below, it is evident that the voters of Ohio view the state’s economic condition as improving, and even more beneficial, is that Governor Kasich is getting the credit – not Barack Obama.

This is a very different political landscape in Ohio than it was leading up to the 2012 election. Republican governors have a story to tell based in economic reform and getting a handle on the budget – which I have not included but is split 46 – 38 approve. Because Mitt Romney failed to make this case, Obama received more credit than he no doubt deserved, but Kasich has not let that happen in his own election bid.

I will make the call whether or not to change the rating on this race by the end of the week. For a full analysis of the 2014 governor race ratings, click here.

If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Fitzgerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom

Fitzgerald           33%     3%    74%    28%    26%    40%
Kasich               47     86     11     45     56     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      3      5      5      3
DK/NA                15      9     13     20     11     19

                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-29  30-44  45-64  65+

Fitzgerald           37%    32%    41%    28%    30%    32%    36%    32%    35%
Kasich               47     46     38     55     55     49     40     49     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      2      -      -      -      3      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      4      2      3      4      6      3      3
DK/NA                14     16     14     14     13     14     16     15     16

If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Cordray the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom

Cordray              36%     3%    78%    32%    30%    41%
Kasich               47     88     10     44     54     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      5      3      3
DK/NA                14      8     10     18     11     16

                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-29  30-44  45-64  65+

Cordray              40%    34%    43%    31%    34%    33%    38%    36%    35%
Kasich               47     46     37     56     56     53     39     48     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      2      1      -      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      4      1      3      1      8      2      2
DK/NA                11     14     15     11      7     14     13     13     15

Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 47% 76% 22% 46% 57% 38% Unfavorable 28 7 47 30 22 33 Hvn't hrd enough 22 15 30 20 19 26 REFUSED 3 2 1 4 2 3

Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom

Approve              54%    81%    32%    52%    62%    47%
Disapprove           32      8     54     33     28     37
DK/NA                13     10     14     15     10     17

                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-29  30-44  45-64  65+

Approve              54%    54%    50%    59%    60%    63%    49%    53%    54%
Disapprove           37     31     34     32     31     21     35     35     34
DK/NA                 8     15     16      9      9     16     16     11     13

Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the economy?

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom

Approve              52%    76%    34%    50%    61%    44%
Disapprove           37     16     54     40     31     43
DK/NA                11      8     12     11      8     13

                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-29  30-44  45-64  65+

Approve              58%    50%    47%    57%    58%    58%    43%    54%    55%
Disapprove           35     38     40     34     37     26     48     37     34
DK/NA                 7     12     13      8      5     15      9      9     12

TREND: Would you describe the state of Ohio’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? (*Low also 5% Dec 2008, Feb 2009)

                                                             EXCELLENT+GOOD
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 25  Apr 18  Mar 18  Feb 06  Dec 11  Jun 25  Mar 18
                     2013    2013    2009    2009    2008    2013    2009*

Excellent             2       2       -       -       -       2       -
Good                 40      36       5       5       5      40       5
Not so good          42      44      36      33      36      42      36
Poor                 15      16      59      61      58      15      59
DK/NA                 1       2       -       1       1       1       -

TREND: Do you think Ohio’s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Jun 25 Apr 18 Dec 11 2013 2013 2012 Better 44 43 42 Worse 11 13 19 The same 42 43 38 DK/NA 2 1 1

TREND: (If economy better) How much credit, if any, do you think the Obama administration should receive for this; a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all?
ECONOMY BETTER Jun 25 Dec 11 2013 2012 A lot 15 31 Some 28 27 A little 20 13 None at all 35 28 DK/NA 1 -

TREND: (If economy better) How much credit, if any, do you think the Kasich administration should receive for this; a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all?
ECONOMY BETTER Jun 25 Dec 11 2013 2012 A lot 29 23 Some 43 38 A little 19 27 None at all 5 10 DK/NA 4 2

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Richard D. Baris

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."