2014 Senate Ratings: Red State Rising, But Just How High?

Thus far, I have scrutinized the 2014 electoral landscape for the House and gubernatorial races, and the 2014 Senate ratings seem to be a bit different. The political pendulum is swinging, which infers there is a Red State rising, but just how high is little less certain. In the House of Representatives, there are simply not enough targets for the Democrats, hence the Generic Congressional ballot will not be a fantastic predictor if it remains a spread of 1, 2 or even 3 point spread.

Read Analysis of the 2014 Midterm Election Shows Movement to GOP for a recap and view House ratings.

The 2010 midterm governor races couldn’t look more different from how the 2014 midterm governor races are shaping out to look. Instead of 24 governorships without an incumbent running, we’re more likely to see a mere half-dozen or so. In the political landscape the GOP has a few to be concerned over, while the Democrats have some vulnerabilities as well.

Read Looking at the Status of the 2014 Midterm Governor Races for a recap and view gubernatorial rating. (Update: Gov. Kasich R-OH, is now “safe Republican”)

It’s far too soon to fully comprehend the political landscape in the upcoming Senate elections, but unless the political pendulum swings drastically, and as Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley at the University of Virginia Center for Politics put it, “one thing seems certain, even 18 months out”:

The seat flips will be mainly or entirely in one Red direction. Right now, Democrats aren’t seriously contesting any Republican seat (excluding New Jersey), while the GOP has an excellent chance to flip two Democratic seats (South Dakota and West Virginia) and at least a fair chance in four other states (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina). Republicans, there’s your good news.

However, politics is politics – things change – and we all remember how favorable the landscape was for the GOP in 2012. For instance, if the Republicans decide to nominate far-right Reps. Paul Broun or Phil Gingrey in Georgia, then the expected Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn could realistically be competitive for the seat in the congressional chamber her father, Sam, once helped run. On the other hand, if former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who is also widely expected to run decides he doesn’t want to run for the open Senate seat of retiring Democrat Max Baucus in Montana, Republicans will have another likely pickup.

The bottom line, there is far more Red opportunities than Blue opportunities, just as it seems to be shaping up in the House. Prevailing wisdom holds that Obama’s popularity is already tanking, as the scandals take their toll, and the lack of presidential leadership will produce the dreaded “sixth year itch” – dreaded, of course, for the incumbent president’s party, because the out-of-power party historically gains a lot of seats.

Democrats have argued that an improving economy will neutralize “the itch,” and voters won’t take the chance of punishing the majority party if they are minimally satisfied. Democrats also point to 1998, and this is a real danger for the GOP, when Bill Clinton’s scandals were supposed to produce a sixth-year itch – and it never came to fruition because of GOP overreach on impeachment and a good economy. Furthermore, the Democrats use the “progress” argument:

President Obama’s party senses possible voter retribution for the increasingly obvious (in their view) GOP gridlocking in Congress; you can’t stop progress, they say, and Republicans will pay a price for doing so. They can also point to 2012 as a year in which they made Senate gains on a seemingly poor playing field, although this map is worse for them on paper.

Below is both the Democratic and Republican-held seats that Crystal Ball has determined warranted a change in their ratings. We will take a look at all 35 of the races and their ratings below. While I have some disagreement over the fundamentals in three of the individual races, I would largely agree with their assessment.

Alaska: Joe Miller, the Tea Party upset victor in the primary who went on only to lose to Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) in her historic write-in campaign in the general election, is throwing his name back in the hat. Miller is now viewed relatively unfavorably by Alaska Republicans. In a May survey conducted for the Tea Party Leadership Fund, Harper Polling found he had a 34%/49% favorable/unfavorable rating among potential GOP primary voters. This is good news for Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R), who made his bid for the seat official last week. Treadwell has already slammed his GOP opponent, saying “I believe I don’t scare people. Joe does sometimes.” Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) is still deciding whether or not to enter the race, and he or Miller just may be able to cast Treadwell as the establishment out-of-towner – he is a Connecticut native. Meanwhile, Senator Mark Begich (D) is trying to desperately hold onto this seat, recently describing himself as “something of a Rockefeller Republican,” and is also a target for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg because of his “Nay” vote on the Toomey-Manchin bill. In a deeply Red State that Mitt Romney easily won, this whould be a “Safe Republican” seat, but it’s not. TOSS-UP

Alabama: Senator Jeff Sessions (R) is running for reelection. Enough said. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Arkansas: Senator Mark Pryor (D) is taking heat from both parties – conservatives say he is a sure vote for President Obama’s agenda, liberals say he too betrayed them on gun control. Pryor, feeling the heat, is already running ads in Arkansas defending his vote against expanded background checks, stating that “No one from New York or Washington tells me what to do. I listen to Arkansas.” Nearly 61% of Arkansans voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, so Pryor is running to the right on certain issues, such as gun control. The GOP has not settled on a declared opponents yet, and when they do we will have a better feel for this race. Reps. Tom Cotton (R) and Steve Womack (R) are both mulling the race, and many Republicans particularly want Cotton to run. Cotton is a favorite of the fiscally conservative Club for Growth and appears to be the likeliest challenger. It’s become clearer over the first half of 2013 that Pryor is vulnerable, and despite the lack of a sure GOP he will have a rough time. TOSS-UP 

Colorado: Governor John Hickenlooper (D) is in big trouble, but Senator Mark Udall (D) appears to be in a solid position to win reelection in 2014. Not one Republican has been willing to jump into the contest, while prompting National Journal to entitle an article “Colorado’s Forgotten Senate Race.” Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez (R), who was easily defeated in the Colorado’s 2006 gubernatorial race, has been mentioned as a GOP possibility, and so has ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R). Former state House Majority Leader Leader Amy Stephens (R), who has connections to the Colorado Springs-based social conservative organization Focus on the Family, may be the grassroots best bet, and is also considering a run. However, Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is not going to run, and because he is seen as a Republican rising star, we can assume that the political landscape in the Centennial State is just not as Red-friendly. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

Delaware: Christine O’Donnell (R) is considering another run in 2014. Senator Chris Coons (D) is looking like he will be all good. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

Georgia: Senator Saxby Chambliss’ (R) retirement has opened up a seat that should be won by Republicans. There are already five GOP candidates in a crowded field. Ex-Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Rep. Jack Kingston (R) are the establishment’s candidates, while socially conservative Reps. Phil Gingrey (R) and Paul Broun (R) are seeking a promotion out of the House. (Kingston is an ally of Republican Gov. Nathan Deal, while Handel narrowly lost to Deal in the 2010 gubernatorial primary.) Businessman David Perdue (R), yes he is the cousin of ex-Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), has also entered the race. While Gingrey has a tendency to stick his foot in his mouth, he has nothing on Broun, who has an even longer history of controversial statements. The Democratic nominee probably will be non-profit executive Michelle Nunn, daughter of ex-Sen. Sam Nunn (D), unless some bigger names unexpectedly get into the race. Georgia’s other senator, Johnny Isakson (R), recently expressed fear that “a perfect storm” of factors could shift a relatively safe Republican seat into Democratic hands. A no-holds-barred, five-way GOP primary – which will likely go to a runoff – could result in the nomination of someone like Broun or Gingrey. If events play out this way, it could put this should-be GOP seat in play. However, it is possible that determining the nomination by convention, which Georgia Republicans recently decided against, could have been even more unpredictable – take a look at the Republicans in Virginia. Aside from Broun or Gingrey winning the GOP nomination, this race is gold for the GOP. But many have already warned that if either one of them do, this could be the Republican-held seat the Democrats pick up, and I would absolutely agree. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Hawaii: The Aloha State will be the Blue version of Red Georgia, featuring a highly competitive Democratic contest. Appointed by Governor Neil Abercrombie (D) to replace the late Senator Daniel Inouye (D), Sen. Brian Schatz (D) will have to repel a primary challenge from Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) to make it to the general election in November 2014. Hanabusa, who according to reports was Inouye’s preferred replacement, gained the endorsement of the powerful women’s group EMILY’s List after declaring her candidacy, and she currently has Inouye’s widow raising money for her. However, Schatz has a very strong labor backing, and Hanabusa’s weak electoral track record in the House makes Crystal Ball view Schatz is be an early favorite in the contest, and again, looking at Hanabusa’s election day support, I would agree. As for the GOP in Blue Hawaii, ex-Rep. Charles Djou (R) has been voiced as a possible candidate, but prospective talent is light for Republicans in the very Democratic state. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

Idaho: Senator Jim Risch (R) has no opponent thus far, for a reason, and it wouldn’t matter if he did. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Illinois: Senator Dick Durbin (D) made it clear that he would seek reelection, and that’s that. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

Iowa: Democrats apparently settled on Rep. Bruce Braley (D) as the party’s nominee in Iowa. Meanwhile, the Republican field is just beginning to manifest in the race to replace retiring Senator Tom Harkin (D). Ex-U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker (R) is now officially in the race, strangely using football analogies in his announcement – Whitaker played football at the University of Iowa. The other candidates, at least at the moment, are David Young (R), Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R) now-former chief of staff, and Sam Clovis, a radio host. Grassley, thus far, is staying neutral and helping them all raise money. Other GOP candidates are pondering the race, including state Sen. Joni Ernst (R), who is taking steps toward announcing a bid. With the GOP field full of second-tier candidates bracing for a possibly competitive primary, the unopposed Braley has an edge – for now. LEANS DEMOCRATIC

Kansas: Senator Pat Roberts (R) is ensuring he won’t have to be bothered with a primary challenge, as he’s planning to raise a bunch of money despite the fact that he won’t have much trouble winning reelection. A Democrat hasn’t represented Kansas in the Senate since 1939, the longest shutout for the Democratic Party in the country. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Kentucky: Independent Democratic groups are already launching ads against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R). They think he’s vulnerable against the right challenger, and apparently McConnell thinks he is from the Right, as he bailed on the Gang of Eight amnesty bill. Recent polling found Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) running dangerously close to the minority leader. Grimes is considered the Democrats’ strongest potential candidate in the state. She won more than 60% of the vote in her 2011 statewide win. McConnell has amassed a massive war chest for his reelection effort, which may discourage other possible Democratic candidates, such as ex-state party chair Bill Garmer (D) and former Miss America Heather French Henry (D). At the federal level Kentucky has proven to be stridently Republican in recent years, and it was one of eight states where Mitt Romney won at least 60% of the vote in 2012. In other words, we’re going to need to see significant changes in this contest before we start considering it truly competitive, and even if Grimes runs it’s just really hard to imagine McConnell losing in a strongly anti-Obama state. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Louisiana: Senator Mary Landrieu (D) is a Democrat who represents conservative territory – Mitt Romney won just about 58% of the Pelican State’s vote in 2012 – making her seat, along with Pryor’s, one of the most attractive targets in the country. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) looks to be the favorite for her opponent for 2014, as unfortunately Rep. John Fleming (R) has opted out of the race. Ex-Rep. Jeff Landry (R) has not closed the door to a run, but is believed to be an unlikely candidate. Early polling has shown this race to be very, very close. Harper Polling, a conservative alternative to the liberal PPP Poll, surveyed the race in April and found Landrieu leading the unknown 46% – 41%. Landrieu, and other Democrats in many Southern states, have a high floor – because of African-American support – but a low ceiling that makes it hard to achieve a majority on Election Day. In Louisiana a plurality isn’t good enough. The winner is required to get 50% plus one of the total votes. Louisiana’s election on Nov. 4, 2014 is actually a jungle primary, they only one in the country. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote that day, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election on Dec. 6. This is nothing new for Landrieu, who has been there a few times already. Landrieu only managed to get a majority in the first round of balloting once out of her 3 election victories, in the 2008 Blue landslide. Aside from Cassidy, other GOP potentials are state school board President Chas Roemer, son of ex-governor and one-time 2012 presidential candidate Buddy Roemer (R). But that does not mean that there will be no other other candidates. One potential is Governor Bobby Jindal (R), but so far “there is no there, there.” Sabato wrote, “While there were only five names on the ballot in 2008, there were nine in 2002. On the surface, it would make sense for Cassidy to prefer a larger field and, therefore, a runoff against Landrieu because turnout in the second round might be much lower than in the first.” But empirical evidence suggests otherwise, and it doesn’t hold up much to scrutiny. In 2002, which Landrieu won, and also in a midterm atmosphere, turnout only fell less than 1% from the Election Day jungle primary to the runoff election. We will just have to wait to see if Landrieu has any further difficulties with American geography. TOSS-UP

Maine: In 2008, an overwhelmingly Blue election, Senator Susan Collins (R) demonstrated that the Democrats never really had a shot. Thus, as long as she runs – which she has given no indication otherwise – Collins is unbeatable. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Massachusetts: Senator-elect Ed Markey (D) will not have to wait long to see who wants to challenge him in 2014 in the seat’s regular election, and it very well may again be Gabriel Gomez. It became known during the special election campaign that Markey is not a particularly strong statewide candidate, however, he has a “D” next to his name in a very Blue Democratic state. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

Michigan: Similar to the situation in Iowa, because that’s what Democrats do, Michigan Democrats have tout suite settled on an established candidate. The Republicans, because that is what they do, may yet to be finished developing their field. It appears that Rep. Gary Peters (D) may not even have to concern himself over a challenge, following the decision of Debbie Dingell (D), wife of House establishment Rep. John Dingell (D), to pass on the race. Peters is the Democratic establishment’s choice, and the lack of a competitive primary will allow him to build up a formidable war chest. On the GOP end, ex-Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) is the first big Republican name to enter the contest, and could potentially be the strongest GOP candidate. Rep. Mike Rogers (R) unfortunately opted out of the race, as I thought him to be a formidable challenge, but Rep. Justin Amash (R) is still thinking it over, which to be sure is a concern portions of the GOP leadership in the Senate. Amash has an attractive background and profile, but he’s only 33 years old and too libertarian for the Grand Ole’ Party. In a state such as Michigan, the libertarian message may prove to resonate more efectively than conventional thinking has held. However, PPP recently surveyed Michigan and found Land performing better against Peters than any other potential GOP candidates, including Amash. Except for ex-Sen. Spencer Abraham’s (R) one term in office following a win in the 1994 Republican Revolution, Republican Senate candidates haven’t performed very well in Michigan over the past 30 years, which is exactly the reason Amash would be such an interesting pick. Still, the early advantage is undeniably with Peters, who would still be in the shadow of the retiring Senator Carl Levin (D). LEANS DEMOCRATIC

Minnesota: Despite barely defeating Coleman (R) by a razor thin voter fraud margin, and a prolonged recount in 2008, Sen. Al Franken (D) is not a particularly vulnerable incumbent. In fact, the rumors are that Franken is not considered a top target by the national GOP. Eschewing the national media and raising a lot of money has firmed up his reelection bid. No top-tier challenger appears interested in challenging the joke – that is the former Saturday Night Live comedian. Businessman Mike McFadden (R) and state Rep. Jim Abeler (R) are the only two candidates in the GOP corner, with state Sen. Julianne Ortman (R) potentially debating a bid. However, Franken appears likely to win a second term. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

Mississippi: Sen. Thad Cochran (R) says it’s too early for him to decide whether or not he’s running in 2014, and if he doesn’t, then it is sure to attract a lot of Republican candidates looking to take advantage of the Red State leanings. Mississippi Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann (R), state Auditor Stacey Pickering (R) and Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R), among others, all are potential successors to Cochran. State Attorney General Jim Hood (D) is the only Democrat who has the stature to cause a problem in an open seat race. Even if Cochran decides against another run, this seat will be very hard for Republicans to lose – fingers crossed. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Montana: Reports had come out that Schweitzer was in the middle of a “charm offensive” to win support from in-state allies of retiring Sen. Max Baucus (D), which seemed to indicate that Schweitzer was fully committed to the race. However, maybe the charming didn’t work, because he is now out of the running. Well-known possible hopefuls such as Rep. Steve Daines (R), ex-Gov. Marc Racicot (R) and ex-Rep. Denny Rehberg (R), who lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in 2012, were anxiously awaiting Schweitzer’s decision. Tester said he would “bet the farm” on Schweitzer entering the contest, but he was wrong. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau and EMILY’s List Pres. Stephanie Schriock are other potential Democratic candidates. GOP big hitters like Daines and Racicot are better possibilities now, but have hinted they wouldn’t run. We really have to see how the field plays out. TOSS-UP 

Nebraska: The surprising retirement of Sen. Mike Johanns (R) and the delayed decision by Gov. Dave Heineman (R) not to run for the seat put this race on hold. Shane Osborn (R), an ex-Navy pilot who served a single term as state treasurer from 2007 to 2011, is already in the race. The state’s three Republican U.S. House members – Jeff Fortenberry, Adrian Smith and Lee Terry – all are unlikely to run, but that is not written in stone. State Treasurer Don Stenberg (R), could make yet another run for Senate, as could state Attorney General Jon Bruning (R), although Bruning indicated earlier this year that he would like to stay on as AG (Bruning and Stenberg lost the 2012 Republican Senate primary to now-Sen. Deb Fischer). There are also several non-career politician possibilities, including businessman Pete Ricketts (R), who got dismantled by then-Senator Ben Nelson (D) in 2006, and Ben Sasse (R), president of Midland University and a George W. Bush administration veteran. While Republicans could have yet another crowded field in the primary, Democrats have not settled on a candidate either. Former Lt. Gov. Kim Robak and Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler are frequently considered, but neither seems likely to run. Because of the uncertainty on both sides, we can only rely on the state’s leanings. In the national political sentiment we are in, I would be hard-pressed to name a scenario in which a Democrat could win. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

New Hampshire: Former Senator Scott Brown’s (R-MA) has been mulling over the idea of running against Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D). If he runs for anything this cycle, it’ll probably be for Massachusetts governor. That pretty much leaves former Reps. Frank Guinta (R) and Jeb Bradley (R) as potential candidates, but there’s just not information to go on. The Granite State is another state – like Colorado, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota – where Republicans really should be in better shape than they are, but this race may eventually become competitive anyway. LEANS DEMOCRATIC

New Jersey: Public polling since the death of Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) finds that Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) has a ginormous lead in both the August primary and the October special election. Reps. Frank Pallone (D) and Rush Holt (D) as well as state Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver (D) are also in the Democratic primary. Appointed Sen. Jeff Chiesa (R) is not running to keep the seat, meaning that the Republican nomination is likely to go to Steve Lonegan> Lonegan is a conservative activist who ran against Christie in the 2009 gubernatorial primary. Christie has always been wary of Lonegan, which is sad because a Republican could conceivably be competitive in New Jersey with a strong backing from Governor Christie. Lonegan’s messaging — his website boasts a large banner that reads “Conservative Republican Victory” – which will not fly in the Blue state. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

New Mexico: The Land of Enchantment’s left turn in its presidential politics, which is due to the 40% plus Hispanic vote share, has extended to its other federal races, where Sen. Tom Udall (D) appears to be in good shape for reelection. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

North Carolina: For what should be one of the most competitive races of the cycle, the Republican field to challenge the vulnerable Senator Kay Hagan (D) has been weak. Thom Tillis, the Republican speaker of the state House, is the only candidate for what should be considerable GOP opportunity. Tillis has been mentioned as a top contender since the start of the cycle, and he should be able to raise a ton of money. Speakers of state legislatures also are, by definition, establishment insiders, and Tillis has not yet proven to be a strong statewide candidate. No matter who the Republican nominee is, this should be a marquee contest in a politically divided state, and it’s very unlikely Republicans can capture a Senate majority if they don’t win here. TOSS-UP

Oklahoma: Unlike other Republican senators – we know who you are – Senator James Inhofe (R) has nothing to worry about in a Republican primary. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Oregon: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) is in much the same position as Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) — he could lose under the precise set of right circumstances, but none of those circumstances have yet developed. The lack of a Republican bench in Oregon — Rep. Greg Walden, the only Republican in the state’s congressional delegation, isn’t running for higher office — works to Merkley’s advantage. So even if Merkley has the occasional embarrassing moment, it doesn’t look like there’s a Republican who can take advantage. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

Rhode Island: Again, it’s Rhide Island. Senator Jack Reed (D) wins. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

South Carolina (regular election): As a member of the Senate Gang of Eight on immigration reform Senator Lindsey Graham (R) invited a primary challenge next year. Who are these potential challengers, and will they actually have a shot? State Sen. Lee Bright (R), Nancy Mace (R) – a businesswoman and the first female graduate of The Citadel – and former congressional candidate Richard Cash (R) are possibilities. Whoever it is will have a heck of a fight on their hands with Lindsey Graham. Why is it that the Palmetto State’s U.S. House representatives, featuring some members closely aligned with the Tea Party (Mick Mulvaney, Jeff Duncan and Trey Gowdy, all of whom were first elected in 2010), have stayed out of this race? Senator Graham has been here before. That’s a far cry from saying that there has not been a lot of buzz about Graham being terribly vulnerable so far, but there’s a long way to go. On the Democratic side, businessman Jay Stamper (D) is in the race, but the Republicans would have to nominate a really terrible candidate – like a Todd Akin – to give the Democrats any glimmer of hope here. SAFE REPUBLICAN

South Carolina (special election): While Graham could face a primary, appointed Sen. Tim Scott (R) is not in any trouble, and that’s what happens when you keep your word. Scott is a strong ally of the aforementioned Reps. Duncan, Gowdy and Mulvaney, which means he’s got no Tea Party problems. Provided he wins in 2014, he will have to run again for a full term in 2016. SAFE REPUBLICAN

South Dakota: The retirement of Sen. Tim Johnson (D) had Democrats focused on two candidates: ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson, the son of the senator. Unfortunately for them, however, both of them declined to run, leaving Rick Weiland (D), a former unsuccessful House candidate who is close to former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD). Daschle’s backing of Weiland apparently frosted Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), who preferred the more conservative (and probably more electable) Sandlin. Weiland starts as a far off to ex-Governor Mike Rounds (R), who is likely to become the Republican nominee after Rep. Kristi Noem (R), the at-large representative who defeated Sandlin in 2010, decided against a run. I believe that Noem would have been the stronger candidate but Rounds might have primary trouble anyway. Yet, he looks like a good bet to be in Washington come 2015. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Tennessee: Conservative groups have decided that Tennessee deserves better, and have been hunting far and wide for a primary challenger to Senator Lamar Alexander (R) – they’ve got a website set up to prove it, BeatLamar.com, that will serve to support an eventual challenger – but so far no one of stature has stepped forward into the race. Stay tuned; Alexander is another Republican who supported the Hoeven-Corker immigration amendment. Democrats don’t have a shot here against Alexander. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R), after seeing his border security amendment fail to be included in the big immigration reform bill voted “Nay” on the legislation along with his fellow Texas colleague, Ted Cruz. If Cornyn is still vulnerable to a challenge, it most likely will some late – just like in 2012, when now-Sen. Ted Cruz (R) benefitted from a pushed-back primary and a runoff in his ultimately successful upset of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R). As of now, Cornyn appears to be in good shape – his only challenger is Iraq war veteran Erick Wyatt (R), who is an unknown at this point. Cornyn got a little negative publicity recently when National Journal reported earlier this month that he is collecting benefits from three different public pensions – a practice commonly known as “double-dipping,” or rather in his case, triple-dipping. Either way… SAFE REPUBLICAN

Virginia: Because this is Crystal Ball’s stopping ground, I will leave this one up to them.

Republicans were always going to have an uphill climb against wealthy Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, but their chances got even slimmer when they opted to select their nominee via convention next year. Having a convention rather than a primary increases the possibility of the GOP picking an unelectable far-right candidate, similar to current 2013 lieutenant governor nominee E.W. Jackson (R). One name to watch is Del. Bob Marshall (R), a culture warrior who would probably make the kind of highly conservative social issues statements that have been causing establishment Republicans headaches lately. The convention also makes it even unlikelier that Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), who will be leaving office because of term limits after the 2013 gubernatorial election, will run against Warner. McDonnell is also in serious trouble because of an FBI investigation into large, unreported gifts that he and his wife have taken from “friends” — the kind of friends attracted to powerful people, residing in the Governor’s Mansion, who can do them favors. Wholly apart from this growing scandal, the GOP activist crowd dislikes him because of a major tax-raising transportation bill passed earlier this year. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

West Virginia: The Mountain State hasn’t been represented by a Republican in the U.S. Senate since 1959 – the longest Republican Senate shutout in the country. If that’ll change, then it’ll change in 2015. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R), the daughter of former Gov. Arch Moore (R), appears to have a clear path to the seat and is the favorite. While Capito does have a primary challenger in former Del. Pat McGeehan (R), she remains a heavy favorite to win the nomination. The biggest boon to the GOP is that Democrats have not yet found anyone of substance to run for the seat. While it’s possible that a quality Democrat will run – Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) or state Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis (D) have been mentioned – this race, along with South Dakota, should be an easy pickup for the Republicans. Losing either one would be a disaster for Republicans, along the lines of their pathetic defeats in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota last cycle. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Wyoming: Liz Cheney, daughter of the former vice president, has announced that she will challenge Sen. Mike Enzi (R), who is reportedly seeking another term. Enzi does have another primary challenger in “self-described soldier of fortune” Thomas Bleming, but Bleming only got about 6% of the vote in his challenge to Sen. John Barrasso (R) last cycle. SAFE REPUBLICAN