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Republicans Retake Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot

Republicans have regained the lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending June 30, 2013.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey released on Monday July 1, reported that 39% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. The week before, Democrats led by one. This is the second time in the past three weeks that both were below 40%, something that hasn’t happened since June 2009.

Below, the first table is an average of recent polls. The following chart is Generic Congressional Ballot tracking conducted by Rasmussen only. We can clearly see the trend. After reelection, the president’s party enjoyed a victory bump, but as the recent White House scandals came to light, the support for the president’s party collapsed.

Poll	Date	Sample	Democrats	Republicans	Spread
RCP Average	5/16 – 6/30	—	41.3	39.0	Republicans +0.5
Rasmussen Reports	6/24 – 6/30	3500 LV	38	39	Republicans +1
Quinnipiac	5/22 – 5/28	1419 RV	38	38	Tie

DATE	DEM	GOP
06-30-13	38%	39%
06-23-13	40%	39%
06-16-13	39%	39%
06-09-13	40%	38%
06-02-13	40%	40%
05-26-13	41%	39%
05-19-13	39%	40%
05-11-13	40%	38%
05-05-13	40%	38%
04-28-13	39%	40%
04-21-13	41%	39%
04-14-13	42%	38%
04-07-13	41%	38%
03-31-13	44%	37%
03-24-13	43%	38%
03-17-13	43%	38%
03-10-13	43%	40%
03-03-13	43%	40%
02-24-13	43%	38%
02-17-13	43%	37%
02-10-13	42%	39%
02-03-13	44%	38%
01-27-13	45%	37%
01-20-13	44%	39%
01-13-13	43%	37%
01-06-13	44%	38%
For complete Generic Ballot history, Click Here.

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Richard D. Baris

Rich, the People's Pundit, is the Data Journalism Editor at PPD and Director of the PPD Election Projection Model. He is also the Director of Big Data Poll, and author of "Our Virtuous Republic: The Forgotten Clause in the American Social Contract."