Inside The Numbers: Polls on ‘Stand Your Ground’, Obama Approval on Race, 2014 Midterm Races And More…

Americans approve of “stand your ground” laws despite the incredibly misleading campaign from the so-called Rev. Al Sharpton & Co., according to a new Quinnipiac Poll released August 2. From the president’s job approval rating to disapproval over Obamacare, it was clearly not a good month for the White House. Let’s take a look Inside The Numbers beginning with “stand you ground.”

While Americans overall give the nod to the self-defense law, opinions are split down racial lines. White voters support “Stand Your Ground” laws 57 – 37 percent while black voters are opposed 57 – 37 percent. Men support these laws 62 – 34 percent while women are divided with 44 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed. Support is 75 – 19 percent among Republicans and 57 – 37 percent among independent voters, with Democrats opposed 62 – 32 percent.

Overall President Obama’s average approval rating suffered this month, with the average of polls falling to 45.5%. In the Quinnipiac University Poll, Americans’ approval of the president on race relations plummeted.

                     Aug 02  Jan 14  Aug 06
                     2013    2011    2009

Approve              47      57      55
Disapprove           46      23      35
DK/NA                 7      20      10

Support among every subgroup – except self-described Democrats – has declined, particularly among self-described Republicans whose disapproval over race relations climbed to 78% from 43% in the January 2011 Q-Poll. Among Independents, who had expressed their approval of the president’s handling of race relations by a 32-point margin – 56% – 24% – in January of 2011, now disapprove by a 13-point margin, 40% – 53%.

Polling on the Generic Congressional Ballot has been a bit contradictory. Although the Quinnipiac University Poll shows wide-spread disapproval of the GOP in Congress, an interesting statistic was that Hispanic voters give the highest marks to congressional Republicans – 35%-47% – more than any other subgroup. In Rasmussen’s last survey, which will be updated early this week, even though Democrats have retaken the lead by a slim 1-point margin, Americans still trust the GOP on a majority of issue, including the most important – the economy. Leftists were touting the study released by Democracy Corps, James Carville’s group, which claimed that the GOP was seen as extreme in the GOP dominated rural areas, yet Republicans still led by a similar 1-point margin overall.

Over the last month, if we piece through the various statistical noise, we find that the Democrats’ lead on the average Generic Congressional Ballot has shrunk from 4% last month, to 1.4% as of today. Perhaps it is fueled by the various scandals, or the growing disapproval of Obamacare. The average favor/oppose numbers have grown increasingly negative amidst the news that the president delayed the employer mandate but not the individual, costs increasing, the IRS effort to be exempt from the exchanges, and news that the bill is not ready to be rolled out on time.

Currently, when we average all of the polling, we find that 39.7% of American favor Obamacare, while 51.3% oppose the law. Those numbers are actually worse in the recent polling. Polling conducted earlier this month did not capture the increased support for repeal over the last two weeks. The most recent polling found upwards of 54% – 58% of Americans favor repeal for some or all of the bill’s provisions.

I will be updating some Senate and House races to include more toss-ups and leaners this week, but the decision by Club for Growth favorite Rep. Tim Cotton (R), to run against Senator Pryor (D) for the Arkansas Senate seat has made the GOP’s chances of retaking the majority even greater. Recent polling shows Cotton handily beating Pryor by an 8-point margin.

In West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana, which haven’t voted for a Democratic president candidate since 1996, 1964, and 1964, long-time Democratic incumbents are retiring. In the first two, Republicans have already recruited Rep. Shelley Moore Capito and former Gov. Mike Rounds. These two candidates are viewed as acceptable moderates and have polled well, indeed, to cause one liberal writer to write that they had “avert-your-eyes poll leads.”

Democrats haven’t recruited anyone, though according to Bennet they’re still doing so “aggressively.” In Montana, Democrats had hoped to run former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, until he surprised everyone after several rounds of publicity hogging and said “no.

In the next article, we will look at the potential 2014 race changes in the Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests.