Republicans Retake The Lead On Generic Congressional Ballot

It appears the their shutdown woes are behind them, with Republicans retaking a slight lead in the PPD average Generic Congressional Ballot calculation.

The Republican Party eked out their slight advantage with the release of two polls conducted by Quinnipiac and Fox News. Prior to the failed rollout of ObamaCare, Democrats have led in the People’s Pundit Daily average Generic Congressional Ballot for most of the year. During the partial government shutdown, Democrats led Republicans by upwards of 6.6 percent.

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However, the decision to oppose ObamaCare despite the risks to shutting down the government may appear to be a benefit in the long run. Clearly, the shutdown hurt the Virginia governor’s race, with the clock running out on Ken Cuccinelli before the bad press surrounding ObamaCare could completely circulate. Yet the Republican Party is clearly the benefactors of their position.

The survey from Quinnipiac University found the contest a tie, closing the average to a slight Democrat advantage. A Fox News poll conducted shortly after the Quinnipiac survey shows the Republicans gaining further momentum — Republicans +3 — resulting in an average lead of .3 percent and counting.

In the Quinnipiac poll, voters were evenly divided 39 – 39 percent on whether they would vote for a Democrat or a Republican in their Congressional district, down from Democrats leading 43 – 34 percent in an October 1 Quinnipiac University poll. Among the biggest change, independent voters shifted from 32 percent for Democrats and 30 percent for Republicans in the October 1 poll, to 37 – 26 percent in support of Republicans today.

                                                             DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 13  Oct 01  Aug 02  Jul 12  May 30  Oct 01  Nov 13
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013*

Republican           39      34      36      34      38      34      39
Democratic           39      43      40      39      38      43      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       4       3       3       3       4       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       2       1       2       2
DK/NA                18      17      19      21      20      17      18

The trend is clear, and apparently has continued in the later conducted Fox News poll, which found Republicans leading Democrats 43 – 40 percent, a reversal from a 45- 37 Democratic advantage in the Fox News poll conducted from October 20-22.