The Democrats are maintaining a small lead over Republicans on the PPD average generic ballot, but if they don’t widen the margin they are headed for defeat.
A new Rasmussen Reports generic ballot survey found Democrats leading Republicans by just 2 points — 40 to 38 percent. However, because of the natural skew in favor of Democrats, the margin is still far too small to forecast any Democratic gains in the House, and the margin means even worse news for statewide Senate elections.
As we have previous examined, Republicans historically pick up more seats on a point-for-point basis, thus a Democratic lead of about 5 points, is likely to end up with a net 3-seat gain for the Democrats. However, a 5-point lead for Republicans will likely result in a net 15-seat gain for the GOP.
These predictions (which you can read here) are based upon a look at all 17 post-World War II midterm election results, which were compared to past generic congressional ballot results, and we drew some real conclusions all other variables excluded. There is an upside for Democrats, however.
Because of the massive Republican gains in 2010, there are fewer opportunities for the party in the 2014 midterms, thus Republican pickup opportunities are likely to be limited.
View PPD Generic Ballot Average Or Weekly Tracking Data From Rasmussen Reports Below
The latest national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from April 7 -April 13, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.
| DATE | DEM | GOP |
|---|---|---|
| 04-13-14 | 40% | 38% |
| 04-06-14 | 40% | 39% |
| 03-30-14 | 39% | 38% |
| 03-23-14 | 41% | 37% |
| 03-16-14 | 38% | 39% |
| 03-09-14 | 39% | 39% |
| 03-02-14 | 39% | 36% |
| 02-23-14 | 41% | 37% |
| 02-16-14 | 41% | 37% |
| 02-09-14 | 40% | 38% |
| 02-04-14 | 39% | 40% |
| 01-26-14 | 42% | 37% |
| 01-19-14 | 41% | 35% |
| 01-12-14 | 41% | 37% |
| 01-05-14 | 40% | 38% |
| 12-29-13 | 40% | 40% |
| 12-22-13 | 39% | 42% |
| 12-15-13 | 40% | 40% |
| 12-08-13 | 38% | 43% |
| 12-01-13 | 38% | 43% |
| 11-24-13 | 41% | 40% |
| 11-17-13 | 39% | 40% |
| 11-10-13 | 41% | 39% |
| 11-03-13 | 43% | 37% |
| 10-27-13 | 43% | 37% |
| 10-20-13 | 43% | 36% |
| 10-13-13 | 45% | 38% |
| 10-06-13 | 40% | 40% |
| 09-29-13 | 42% | 38% |
| 09-22-13 | 40% | 37% |
| 09-15-13 | 38% | 38% |
| 09-08-13 | 39% | 39% |
| 09-01-13 | 39% | 37% |
| 08-25-13 | 38% | 39% |
| 08-18-13 | 38% | 38% |
| 08-11-13 | 39% | 39% |
| 08-04-13 | 38% | 41% |
| 07-28-13 | 39% | 38% |
| 07-21-13 | 40% | 38% |
| 07-14-13 | 38% | 39% |
| 07-07-13 | 39% | 40% |
| 06-30-13 | 38% | 39% |
| 06-23-13 | 40% | 39% |
| 06-16-13 | 39% | 39% |
| 06-09-13 | 40% | 38% |
| 06-02-13 | 40% | 40% |
| 05-26-13 | 41% | 39% |
| 05-19-13 | 39% | 40% |
| 05-11-13 | 40% | 38% |
| 05-05-13 | 40% | 38% |
| 04-28-13 | 39% | 40% |
| 04-21-13 | 41% | 39% |
| 04-14-13 | 42% | 38% |
| 04-07-13 | 41% | 38% |
| 03-31-13 | 44% | 37% |
| 03-24-13 | 43% | 38% |
| 03-17-13 | 43% | 38% |
| 03-10-13 | 43% | 40% |
| 03-03-13 | 43% | 40% |
| 02-24-13 | 43% | 38% |
| 02-17-13 | 43% | 37% |
| 02-10-13 | 42% | 39% |
| 02-03-13 | 44% | 38% |
| 01-27-13 | 45% | 37% |
| 01-20-13 | 44% | 39% |
| 01-13-13 | 43% | 37% |
| 01-06-13 | 44% | 38% |
| For complete Generic Ballot history, Click Here. | ||
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