Joni Ernst Opens Up Big Lead In Iowa Senate Primary, Now ‘Safe’ Bet

Iowa Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst has opened up a wide lead ahead of Tuesday’s primary, leading her closest challenger by an average of 14 points. PPD has now moved our primary projection from “Leans” Ernst — first assigned in April — to “Safe” Ernst. In order to outright win the nomination the self-described “mother, soldier, conservative” needs to take 35 percent of the vote in the five-way race.

The latest Des Moines Register poll shows her at 36 percent, exactly double the support of her closest challenger, businessman Mark Jacobs. But she enjoys broad-based support from groups such as Senate Conservatives Fund, which recently launched a new TV ad on May 27, to Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a coalition we believe should get her across the finish line on Tuesday.

Whether or not Ernst secures the nomination on the first round, is largely irrelevant to the inevitable outcome. Ernst made headlines back in March with an ad called “Squeal” that talked about her experience “castrating hogs.” Then, another ad entitled “Shot,” depicted Ernst, a veteran and former Lt. Colonel, with a firearm preparing “to take aim at wasteful spending” and promises to “set her sights on ObamaCare.” As we first underscored back in early May, she is the only candidate to have reached first-tier status. Now the latest polls confirms our early suspicions.

The soon-to-be Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley, launched a new ad highlighting his work as a lawyer, an attempt to soften the profession that he elevated above Iowa farmers, whom he trashed in a video.

Meanwhile, in a new ad by Joni Ernst, the likely challenger to Braley plays up her Iowa roots. Aside from the video, the Iowa Senate race a “Toss-Up” on our 2014 Senate Map Predictions for the same reasons Ernst’s new ad is a hit.

By a 2 to 1 margin, Quinnipiac University found Iowa voters say they want a senator who opposes ObamaCare and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and a plurality want someone opposed to stricter gun control laws.

Harper Polling, as well, found by a margin of 52 – 39 percent, Iowa voters say they want a senator who opposes ObamaCare. Similarly, Harper Polling found Iowa voters by a margin of 42 – 38 percent want a Republican senator.

Iowa voters approve 62 – 27 percent of the job Senator Chuck Grassley is doing, but only approve 55 – 31 percent of Senator Tom Harkin.

When we compare trends, both of which show respectable improvements, we see a large disparity. The difference reflects the same political dynamic we discussed in the analysis of the last Iowa Senate poll conducted by Quinnipiac University: Iowa voters, ideologically and on the specific issues, have voter’s remorse over Barack Obama and largely agree with the Republican Party.

“President Barack Obama twice carried Iowa and it was the Iowa Caucuses which began his march to the presidency, but if he were on the ballot here today he would be toast,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

But while Obama, himself, may not be on the ballot in November, his policies are. Ernst has found the correct balance between opposing his policies enough to earn the support of the conservative base, while still receiving the endorsements of former 2012 president nominee Mitt Romney and likely 2016 president hopeful Marco Rubio.

Despite the fact that Sam Clovis has said he is more conservative than Ernst, Iowa Republican voters say she is the most conservative in the race, the Des Moines Register poll showed. If no candidate captures 35 percent, which senior political analyst Richard D. Baris does not view as the more likely outcome, about 2,000 activists would choose the nominee on June 14. “For all the talk of their conservative roots, Iowa activists are also pragmatists,” Baris said. “Ernst is a conservative who can also reach over and pull moderates to her corner. They will choose her if it even gets that far.”

Still, he says that she will have her work cut out for her no matter Tuesday’s results. “Winning the nomination outright in a five-way race is impressive, but where the numbers are also show she has a lot of others to win over who didn’t vote for her,” he added. “But Republicans want the Senate so badly, and according to polling, so do Iowa voters.”

Average polling shows a pretty safe race for Ernst going into Tuesday’s primary.

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