ABC/WaPo Poll: Obama’s Approval Drops To All-Time Low As GOP Enthusiasm Gains

A new ABC/WaPo Poll found President Obama’s approval rating at 39 percent among likely voters and a 7-point lead for Republicans on the generic ballot. The president’s overall approval rating even among registered voters — 40 percent — is now at the lowest level of his presidency in this particular poll, with GOP enthusiasm topping Democrats heading into the final weeks of campaigning in the 2014 midterm elections.

A whopping 77 percent of Republicans say they are “certain” to vote, while just 63 percent of Democrats say the same. That gap has widened in this pollster’s tracking, which has brought it more in line with the consensus, but the overall levels for both parties are generally higher than other polls suggest.

The intensity level is clearly against the president, which considering this pollster’s record, is very concerning for Democrats. Nearly a quarter of independents (23 percent) say they want to send a message to oppose the president with their vote, while just 8 percent say they want to support him with their vote. More than 4 in 10 Republicans (46 percent) say they will vote to send a message of opposition, while just 30 percent of Democrats say they are voting to send a message of support for Obama.

In 2010, when Democrats took a historic “shellacking” in both the House and Senate, 49 percent of Republicans said they wanted to send a signal of opposition to Obama with their vote, while 50 percent of Democrats said they were sending a message of support.

Independents back Republican candidates by a widening 51 percent to 32 percent margin, similar to the GOP advantage found by other pollsters for weeks. Favorability ratings for Democrats are at a 30-year low, and for the first time ever a majority (51 percent) gives the Democrats an unfavorable rating. Now, just 30 percent of registered voters give a favorable rating of the Democratic Party.

Republicans are little changed at their similarly abysmal rating, but the problem for Democrats is a deeper one. A large number of voters who give the GOP negative ratings are actually Republican voters who feel slated by their party leaders. That’s why Republicans hold a lead of 53 percent to 32 percent among the roughly one-quarter of the likely electorate that has an unfavorable view of both political parties.

The poll results are deeply disturbing for Democrats less than three weeks out from the 2014 midterm elections. On PPD’s Pollster Scorecard, the ABC/WaPo was downgraded in April for leaning to the left beyond what is necessary to hold their near-stellar rating. The result is that they now receive less weight when calculating PPD’s averages and election projections.

We still still the same problematic results in the latest poll, yet the Democrats are still trailing badly — an ominous sign for them. For instance, Obama’s job approval on the economy and various questions regarding who voters trust on specific issues are inexplicably favorable to Democrats.

“Until this fall, Democrats have long had the advantage on this question among the general population, sometimes by double digits,” said Dan Balz, the Chief Correspondent at The Washington Post. “When the results are limited to registered voters, the survey finds Republicans with a slim three-point advantage, growing to eight points among likely voters.”

However, most of pollsters have long found a Republican advantage on the question of which party is more trusted dealing with the country’s top problems. Gallup, as an example, recently released a survey that found voters trust Republicans candidates significantly more than Democrats on four of the six big issues facing the nation. That’s been the general case for some time with other pollsters — many of which, have a more accurate rating than Gallup — as well.

Overall, the new ABC/WaPo Poll confirms our suspicion and observations while analyzing ratings on PPD’s 2014 Senate Map Predictions model. The polling data have been and continue to converge on the fundamentals of the election, despite Democrats running particularly strong campaigns in a number of otherwise difficult states.

Obama’s approval now sits around 41 percent on the PPD average — which is artificially propped up by the junk-rated pollster Rasmussen Reports — while the Republicans have a consistent and widening lead on PPD’s average generic ballot.