Harvard Poll: Motivated Millennial Voters Support GOP Over Democrats

A new poll conducted by the Harvard Institute of Politics underscored yet another challenge for Democrats heading into the 2014 midterm elections on Tuesday.  Not only do Democrats have to worry about getting a typical base constituency to vote, but also whether they will support the Republican candidate when they do.

In a first-ever for the Harvard Millennial Poll, more 18 – 29 year-olds identify as “conservative” (35 percent) than “liberal” (33 percent), a reversal from the 37 – 33 percent advantage liberals enjoyed just two years ago. Further, among young Americans who say they will “definitely be voting” in November, 51 percent say they prefer a Republican-controlled Congress juxtaposed to 47 percent who say they prefer Democrats’ continued control.

In 2010, a Republican wave election cycle, the IOP survey showed millennial voters preferred Democrats 55 – 43 percent, which was right on the money.

“The IOP’s fall polling shows that young Americans care deeply about their country and are politically up-for-grabs,” said Harvard Institute of Politics Director Maggie Williams. “Millennials could be a critical swing vote. Candidates for office: ignore millennial voters at your peril.”

President Obama’s job approval rating among 18-29 year-olds fell from 47 percent in April 2014 to 43 percent in the latest survey, with 53 percent saying they disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president. It was the second-lowest rating in the IOP poll since he was sworn in to office, second only to the 41 percent he received in November 2013. Among 18-29 year-olds saying they will “definitely be voting in November,” the president’s job approval rating is 42 percent, with 56 percent saying they disapprove.

The drop among young Hispanics was the most pronounced out of any other group. The president’s job approval rating among Hispanics fell to its lowest since the IOP began tracking it in 2009. Now, only 49 percent say they approve, while 46% disapprove. Though still above water, it was a significant drop from just six months ago. In April, 2014, 60 percent of young Hispanics approved and, even worse, far from the 81 percent who approved in November 2009.

By a large 12-point margin, young Republicans (42 percent) who say they are definitely going to vote in November outnumber young Democrats (30 percent), which is a wider margin than the one found in the Sept. 2010 IOP poll — 38 percent of Republicans said they were “definitely” voting and 33 percent of Democrats said they were “definitely” voting.

Young Americans oppose ObamaCare by roughly the same margin as the nation as a whole, 39 – 57 percent. However, as good as the news appears to be for the GOP, they should not take these results as an affirmation of their current outreach, but rather a deep disappointment in the president and Democrats among millennial voters.

“While Democrats have lost ground among members of America’s largest generation, millennial views of Republicans in Congress are even less positive,” said Harvard Institute of Politics Polling Director John Della Volpe. “Both parties should re-introduce themselves to young voters, empower them and seek their participation in the upcoming 2016 campaign and beyond.”

The KnowledgePanel® survey of 2,029 18- to 29- year-old U.S. citizens had a margin of error of +/– 2.6 percentage points (95 percent confidence level). It was conducted with the Government and Academic Research team of GfK for the IOP between September 26 and October 9.