Anything Can Happen, But Trump Remains Dominant in Latest Polls
Donald Trump, right, during a campaign stop in Burlington, Vt., on Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016. (Photo: AP) Sen. Ted Cruz, right, speaks in Johnston, Iowa, December 4, 2015. (Photo: Reuters/Brian C. Frank)
Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz lead the Republican field in the latest polls and averages in early voting states for the week ending January 9, 2015. Trump, the billionaire real estate mogul, remains the national frontrunner and leads in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
Sen. Cruz, who made the largest ever recorded one-time gain in Iowa, leads The Donald on the PPD aggregate average by 4.2%, or 30.0% to 26.1%. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who is trying to straddle his role as the Establishment replacement to Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and a bonafide conservative, trails behind the two top candidates with 12% of the primary vote. Former frontrunners Dr. Ben Carson and Bush follow behind Rubio in the Hawkeye State with 9.4% and 5.3%, respectively.
In New Hampshire, there has been some interesting movement. Still, with exactly one month before the votes are counted, Trump without a doubt remains the clear favorite, a position he has held unprecedentedly since August. Trump (30%) holds a double-digit lead over Rubio, or 30% to 13.8%, respectively.
Cruz, the Iowa frontrunner in polls and organization, has made considerable progress in the Granite State, yet still remains in third place behind Rubio with 12%. However, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has surged ahead of Bush (8.0%) and Kasich (8.7%) to take fourth place right behind Cruz with 9.5%.
Make no mistake, the first in the nation primary has far more predictive value historically than the Iowa caucus, and at least four candidates must either win, post a reasonably respectable showing or outperform expectations. While most other pundits are focused on whether Cruz will beat Trump in Iowa, the PPD Election Projection Model has long-expected Cruz or someone else to do so.
The 55%-plus share of the caucus that evangelicals will represent makes it a difficult state for The Donald, but history shows his lead in New Hampshire and beyond is not likely to be greatly impacted by Iowa, alone.
In South Carolina, where more recent polling would serve to gauge the state more accurately, Trump still holds a 14.4% lead over Cruz, his closest rival with 19.3%. The Palmetto State is not as deeply conservative and evangelical as most pundits incorrectly assume. Rubio, who still holds on to third with 12.7%, sucked up all the big name organizers months ago, including several that were loyal to Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Bottom Line
If Donald Trump can either win or beat expectations in Iowa, which will hinge on whether he can convert independents over to caucus-goers, then he will likely go on to win New Hampshire barring any unforeseen circumstances. As of now, this would greatly increase the likelihood that he will be the Republican nomination. If, however, Cruz beats Trump badly in Iowa and goes on to take second in New Hampshire, he might be able to convert that momentum into South Carolina.
Historically, that would be a very heavy lift for the Texas senator. By a 2 to 1 margin, Republican primary voters believe Trump will be the Republican nominee, and say he is best equipped to handle the major voting issues this cycle. There is something to say for having the air of inevitability on your side, historically speaking.
But, then again, modern American political history hasn’t been that great a guide for other pundits this cycle, and we aren’t racing to fall into the same trap. Let’s wait and see.
