Poll: Trump Leads South Carolina Republican Primary Field by Wide Margin

Again, Cruz’s “Courageous Conservatives” Voting for Donald Trump

Donald Trump still holds a significant lead in the first South Carolina Republican primary poll since his big win in the New Hampshire contest this week. Trump leads his closest rival Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by a statistically significant 16%, or 36.3% to 19.6%. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who came in a disappointing fifth place, earned 14.6% of the vote in the Palmetto State, which hosts it’s primary on February 20.

“Looking at the data, once again Donald Trump is leading across nearly every demographic group,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris. “His supporters are far more likely to vote, he’s taking support from Cruz’s core target constituents and it’s not even close. Candidate greed is about to hand over the Republican nomination to The Donald.”

Opinion Savvy South Carolina Poll

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is bringing in his brother, former president and one-time Palmetto State primary winner on the trail this week, is polling fourth at 10.9%. Bush also finished fourth in the Granite State, while Kasich, who came in second, has increased his support to 8.7%.

Trump is also polling on the second choice question much closer to his numbers in New Hampshire, rather than Iowa. According to the poll conducted by Opinion Savvy for the Augusta Chronicle, 15.7% also say he is their second choice, less than two points behind Cruz at 17.0%.

As of Friday, according to the PPD Election Projection Model, the frontrunner has a 61% chance of victory in the South Carolina Republican primary, with Cruz far behind at 19%. Trump also has a wide 17-point lead–37.3% to 20.3%–on the PPD average of Palmetto State polls.