Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Greenville, South Carolina, on February 15, 2016.
Donald Trump has widened his lead among veterans in South Carolina after he said in Greenville President George W. Bush lied to the U.S. before the Iraq War. A new FOX Poll finds Trump leading his closest rival Texas Sen. Ted Cruz 32% to 19% among likely Republican voters in South Carolina, with Marco Rubio coming in third at 15%.
Veterans, a small but roughly 60,000-strong subgroup of voters, back Trump 37% to 22% over Cruz, with Rubio (15%) and Bush (9%) trailing far behind. Trump also leads among both men (35%) and women (28%).
While Trump did fall from 35% to 32% in the FOX Poll since December, he leads by nearly 17% on the have been abysmal of South Carolina Republican primary polls and currently has nearly an 80% chance of victory on Saturday. A new Bloomberg/Selzer Poll, which is rated higher than the FOX Poll on the PPD Pollster Scorecard, found Trump with a larger 19-point lead.
Trump’s supporters (83%), as was the case in New Hampshire, are significantly more firm and likely to vote than either Cruz’s (73%), Rubio’s (71%) or the Republican primary electorate, as a whole (74%).
“In order for Cruz to beat Trump in the Palmetto State, he will have to run up the margins in what we call the Northern Up-Country, where there is a large evangelical Christians vote,” said PPD’s senior political analyst Rich Baris. “The fundamental problem Cruz has is that Trump is beating him among these voters and will destroy him in the eastern coastal and central counties.”
Indeed, among the 60% of evangelicals voting in the South Carolina Republican primary, Trump beats Cruz by 8 points, 31% to 23%, respectively. Rubio receives 17% and Bush 10%, at least in the FOX Poll.
“The bottom line is that South Carolina looks like it is voting more like New Hampshire than Iowa,” Baris said. “If these numbers hold, we’ll be able to call this one early.”
In a powerful moment on the campaign trail earlier this week, Trump received an impromptu endorsement from an Iraq War veteran while campaigning in North Augusta, South Carolina.
